Outlook on climate change adaptation in the Hindu Kush Himalaya

Energy The energy policies in the HKH aim to make production and consumption more efficient, and promote a transition to low- or zero-carbon energy sources. Despite this, energy is one of the most polluting sectors, and a major source of greenhouse gas emissions. All HKH countries have energy development strategies at the national level, but these have limited consideration of adaptation measures for mountain-relevant hazards that can adversely affect this sector. Although Nepal recognizes most of the identified hazards for the sector, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China and Pakistan do not mention any of them. Furthermore, targeted policies for renewable energy are lacking in several HKH countries. The HKH’s hydropower potential is primarily concentrated in the mountain regions. As hydropower’s dependence on water makes it vulnerable to climate change impacts such as declining precipitation or increased intensity of rainfall, appropriate policies are pivotal in developing the region’s potential. However, along with insufficiencies in policies, there are strong technical and political barriers between countries (Sinha, 2016). Moreover, apart from India, Myanmar and Nepal, the countries do not address transboundary consideration and cooperation among each other, which is critical for the region’s prosperity, and to address the slow progress in its hydropower development. Key mountain-relevant hazards such as reduced snow cover are not taken into account by any of these countries. Even the critical hazards of landslides, GLOFs and avalanches are mentioned only in Nepal’s policy document. Policies seeking to promote hydropower development need to consider the changing hydrological regimes, extreme climate and other events such as earthquakes, and transboundary collaboration to share the relevant critical information must improve.

Current agricultural policies rarely consider the specific impact of climate change on women, children and the elderly. The connection between climate change risks, farming practices, and policies needs to be strengthened. Good practices on the ground that have been autonomously adopted need to be backed up by appropriate research, policies and extension services. Forests, biodiversity and ecosystems Most of the HKH countries have adopted new forest legislation that aims to introduce multifunctional and sustainable forest management while integrating a number of global nature protection regulations and programmes. However, mountain-relevant hazards for the sector are inadequately addressed, and Afghanistan and Myanmar do not consider any of these in their key policy document. Even where legislation to address forest-related issues and conflicts exists, adaptation efforts and mechanisms for the sector are weak and underdeveloped. In addition, the existing policies do not appropriately address altitudinal shifts of vegetation and species leading to the loss of biodiversity and livelihoods. As for critical hazards, heatwaves are not addressed by any of the HKH countries’ policies, and only Nepal mentions landslides within its key policy document. As forest fires are rapidly emerging as a concern for the region, legislation and management policies need to be strengthened to provide targeted solutions such as fire alerts. Policies need to better consider the current and projected vegetation and species range shift due to increasing temperatures, as this shift has the potential to adversely impact local livelihoods, ecosystem services, and human–wildlife conflicts.

Policies need to address the existing barriers for uptake by decentralizing clean energy options such as micro- hydro, solar, wind and biomass via small businesses. Infrastructure and urban areas Infrastructure and urban areas are vulnerable to climate change impacts such as heavy rainfall, which can trigger floods and landslides, affecting roads, bridges, communication systems and hydropower plants. The majority of the HKH countries have developed policies to regulate and guide the development of infrastructure and urban areas. However, aside from basic statements on climate-induced impacts, the policy documents offer little information about adaptation measures or goals. Of the identified hazards, Afghanistan, China and Nepal address landslides, and together with Bangladesh they also address floods. The other HKH countries – Bhutan, India, Myanmar and Pakistan – do not mention any of these as hazards in their policy documents. Furthermore, it is concerning that out of all the HKH countries, only China address the key mountain-relevant climate hazards of heatwaves, droughts and heavy snow and cold extremes. Policies need to ensure that any infrastructure development considers the projected risks from climate hazards, for example by integrating vulnerability assessments and timely sharing of updated information on potential risk zones. Human health The linkage between human health and climate change, and the potential health impacts of mountain-relevant hazards, are not considered as an adaptation priority by the HKH countries, despite the projected increase in the burden of climate-related health impacts. Only the key policy documents of Afghanistan, Bangladesh recognize flash floods and landslides as hazards

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