Outlook on climate change adaptation in the Hindu Kush Himalaya

Executive summary

The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) is on the frontline of climate change. Over the past decades, there has been a strong and clear warming trend across the region. Higher altitude areas have warmed faster than lowland areas, and also faster than the global average. Most HKH glaciers are retreating and losing mass, and will continue to do so into the future. In the future, temperatures will increase by 1–2 ° C on average by 2050, even reaching 4–5 ° C in some mountainous and high-altitude areas under a high- emissions scenario. Even in a 1.5 ° Cworld, the average increase in the HKH is projected to be 1.8 ± 0.4 ° C. Asia as a whole is likely to see more precipitation, and the same is true for the Hindu Kush Himalaya. The monsoon season is likely to start earlier and end later, and rainfall will become more erratic within the monsoon season. While the number of extreme rainfall events are likely to decrease, the amount (i.e. intensity) of rain during such events may increase. Both fast and slow onset climate hazards create risks for the mountain and for downstream populations and for all sectors. These are not far-off risks, but very real present-day concerns. The HKH region and its downstream areas are very familiar with extreme events, many of which cause natural disasters with very significant impacts on lives and livelihoods. The four largest floods over the period 2000–2013 in the region killed a combined total of more than 10,000 people and displaced over 50 million. Large amounts of rainfall over a short period of time will further increase the risk of floods and landslides; while the continued melting of glaciers is expected to increase the size and number of glacial lakes, translating into greater risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs).

The majority of the population is still rural, and strongly dependent on agriculture. Most is rain-fed and therefore vulnerable to changes in rainfall timing as well as frequency. This vulnerability is exacerbated by low diversification of livelihoods. Because of the socially constructed gender roles, climate change is also impacting men and women differently. With high outmigration of men in many rural areas, a significant burden is borne by the rural womenwho are leftbehind. In the absence of adequate adaptation measures, it is expected that food production in the HKH will generally be negatively affected through delayed or early onsets of monsoon and change in its duration, higher rainfall variability, as well as increased extreme events including floods and droughts. But the impacts will likely vary across the region, both in terms of positive and negative outcomes, and to what degree these will be felt. The people that will be most affected by climate change are the poorest, those from a low caste, women, children and the elderly, as they are the most vulnerable and have the least ability to cope. Further risks exist for forest and other ecosystems, which are essential in providing ecosystem services for mountain and downstream populations. There are also large, growing and dense human populations living in cities across the HKH. Many lack basic infrastructure and are located in areas exposed to climate-related hazards, the most significant being floods, landslides and droughts. All sorts of infrastructure, including hydropower, will be at increasing risk from climate change. While improvements in disaster risk reduction are being made, these measures often struggle to keep pace

with rapid population growth, which have led to the uncontrolled expansion of many urban areas, including the development of informal settlements and slums in hazard-prone areas. In order to prevent or minimize the damage, governments need to anticipate the effects of climate change, and take appropriate action. Adaptation takes place at all levels, including autonomous adaptation at the local level, through to the international level. The HKH countries are all involved in international cooperation on climate change and in the respective countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), adaptation for relevant sectors are overall well addressed, apart from tourism and human health. Regional cooperation should be a priority in the region as many climate change impacts are transboundary in nature, but collaboration and support for the generation and sharing of scientific data is still limited. Cooperation between upstream and downstream communities, also across borders, is also an issue demanding more attention. National climate change adaptation policies are in place or under development throughout the HKH, and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) are under preparation by most of the countries, whereas the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) have established National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs). The findings from the sectoral policy analysis made visible that there are great differences to what extent the eight countries in the HKH address mountain related climate hazards and climate change adaptation for different sectors. Below is a summary of key policy responses, gaps and recommendations.

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