Outlook on climate change adaptation in the Hindu Kush Himalaya

Summary of key hazards, vulnerabilities and risks (continued)

Key Vulnerability

Key Risk

Climate Hazards 7

• Ecosystems and water bodies vulnerable to increased evapotranspiration

• Progressive decline in soil moisture leading to increased fire risks, reduced agricultural productivity and ecosystem functions, and economic losses • Less infiltration affecting groundwater recharges • Invasion by xeric (dry area) species (e.g. mikania, eupatorium, lantana) • Change in utility values of alpine and subalpine meadows • Increased degradation and destruction of peatlands (bogs, marshlands, swamps, bayous)
 • Increased evapotranspiration and reducedmoisture content will reduce the area of wetlands at low altitudes (such as Loktak Lake, Deepor Beel) • Drying and desertification of alpine zones • Reduced availability of medicinal plants for traditional health care • Increase in vector-borne diseases (e.g. malaria and dengue) • New diseases and disease vectors • Morbidity, illness and increased burden on health-care systems • Epidemics • Climate change may exacerbate pests and diseases in plants, animals and humans • Release of greenhouse gases and positive feedback loops for climate change • Appearance and disappearance of newwater bodies (positive and negative) • Damage to infrastructure and buildings from permafrost thawing • Enhanced risks from climate hazards or earthquakes, leading to, for example, mudslides and landslides • Reduction and/or loss of ecosystem services, resources and livelihoods • Increase in undesirable and invasive species (e.g. mimosa in Kaziranga) • Changes in biomass productivity • Ecological shifts – changes in species persistence and distribution of ecological zones (e.g. migration to higher altitudes) • Non-native fungal diseases and invasive species (including insect pests) may damage forests and other ecosystems • Habitat loss and fragmentation • Loss of species and genetic diversity

Slow onset rising temperatures (continued)

• Human health dependent on environment and ecosystemservices • Communities not accustomed to vector-borne diseases, which could rise in higher altitudes • People with limited experience with vector-borne diseases such as dengue fever, Chikungunya and tick-borne diseases, which may spread to higher altitude areas due to increasing temperatures • Limited capacities and funds for health sectors and communities to adapt • Permafrost sufficiently close to melting points • Buildings and infrastructure built on such permafrost • Rare, endemic and vulnerable species and habitats that are sensitive to temperature changes, such as ecosystem types near the edges of their historical distributions • Ecosystems/species unable tomigrate to suitable climate conditions • Ecosystems vulnerable to changes inwater bodies and soil moisture • Communities that depend on vulnerable ecosystem processes, species or services • Vulnerable migratory species due to discrepancies between migration patterns and available food

Ecosystems degradation

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