Outlook on climate change adaptation in the Hindu Kush Himalaya

HKH freshwater ecosystems are also likely to be under pressure in the near future. Factors such as water temperature will affect freshwater species, especially those that depend on temperature changes to complete lifecycles (Allen et al., 2010). Energy Hydropower generation Given the significant hydropower opportunities in the region, it crucial to understand how climate change may impact electricity production and hydropower plants and what the potential risks are for surrounding areas. Hydropower is deemed particularly vulnerable to climate change, since it depends on one of the Earth’s most threatened natural resources – water. A recent global review of mountainous areas, which included the Himalayas, found that very few, publicly available studies are available that specifically examine the hydropower sector and assess how changing river run-off trends might impact electricity production in existing hydropower plants as well as potential hydropower capacity (Carey et al., 2016.) Most existing studies examine the potential impacts of climate change on river run-off and infer possible outcomes for hydropower. In general, river run- off is not expected to decline significantly before 2050 (Shrestha et al., 2015a). Most river basins will likely experience an increase in run-off, except the Indus river basin, which may decrease by 5 per cent compared with the reference point (1998–2007) (Shrestha et al., 2015a). River basins in the drier western Himalayas, such as the Indus, where glacial meltwater contributes more significantly to the overall river run-off, aremore vulnerable in the longer term as this meltwater decreases. In the central and eastern Himalayas, river run-off is more dependent on monsoon precipitation. In these areas, declining

that species have already adjusted to living in certain climates. With a changing climate, species that once were present and had adapted to an area with a specific climatic zone may no longer be able to survive in the area’s new conditions (Xu and Grumbine, 2014). Although climate change may cause species disappearance from areas, it can also facilitate the introduction of new species that are accustomed to the new climate conditions. According to a study of the eastern Himalayas, climate change has had various observable impacts, including the loss and fragmentation of habitats, degradation of wetlands and riverineislandecosystems,decreaseinagrobiodiversity, increase in invasive alien species and weeds, and degradation of soil fertility, among others (Tsering et al., 2010). Furthermore, the study projects that climate change will cause the vertical migration of some species and loss or extinction of others. Species found

in the high mountains are especially vulnerable to the warming climate, as they have limited opportunities to migrate upward (Tsering et al., 2010). For example, snow leopards are believed to be especially threatened by climate change due to shrinking habitats and increased conflicts with humans (Valentová, 2017). In Upper Mustang (Nepal), the shifting treeline has been linked to two connected human–wildlife conflicts: the Himalayan blue sheep ( Pseudos nayaur ) – a major food of the snow leopard – has started to forage in cultivated land at lower altitudes due to the shrinking of high- altitude shrublands and grasslands, which in turn, has led snow leopards to these lower sites, which have then killed livestock (Aryal et al., 2013). In the last two decades in the Indian Himalayan region (1994–2016), field studies have revealed that numerous wild animals have had a negative impact on the well-being of local communities (Gupta et al., 2017).

Afghanistan Mountains

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