Outlook on climate change adaptation in the Hindu Kush Himalaya

mountains for irrigation. For example, the Indus irrigation system, the world largest contiguous irrigation system, irrigates roughly 76 per cent of the cultivated area in Pakistan, enabling the production of more than 80 per cent of the country’s food grains and cash crops (Rasul, 2014). The Ganges supports approximately 60 per cent of India’s irrigated area and the Brahmaputra supports irrigation in large parts of Bangladesh, Bhutan and India (Rasul, 2014). As previously mentioned, the water in the 10 largest river basins that originate in HKH mountains is a combination of rainfall and meltwater from snow and glaciers. According to Immerzeel et al. (2010), the impacts of climate change in the Indus and Brahmaputra basins are likely to be more severe than in the Ganges, Yangtze and Yellow River due to their reliance on glacial meltwater, in addition to the river basins’ large populations and irrigation needs. Any changes to monsoon patterns will have a larger effect on agriculture in the eastern Himalayas, which depend on these more than other Himalayan areas. Specifically within the HKH region, most agriculture is rain-fed, making it vulnerable to changes in precipitation patterns. The low diversification of the population’s livelihoods exacerbates this situation, as a high proportion are reliant on agriculture and are therefore vulnerable. Field studies and household surveys offer insight into households’ own experiences on how climate change is affecting agriculture. A recent poverty and vulnerability assessment of HKH populations found that 40 per cent of 8,000 households had experienced decreasing yields in their five most important crops, due to floods, droughts, frost, hail, pests and disease. Specific pests and diseases reported by farmers spread across the Upper Indus, Koshi, Upper Brahmaputra, eastern Brahmaputra and Salween and Mekong river basins include blight and leaf worms in potato and maize; brown leaf spot, leaf roll and stem borer in paddies;

Farming in Khagrachhari Area, Chittagong Hill District, Bangladesh

loose smut in wheat, barley and maize; white grub and stem borer in millet; and increased liver fluke in livestock at higher altitudes (Gerlitz et al., 2014). Responses from farmers in Bhutan, India and Nepal for another field study were similar to those recorded by Gerlitz et al. (2014). Although the farmers’ perception of climate change varied slightly depending on their location and altitude, all had experienced reduced agricultural productivity, crop failures, increased crop destruction and loss of harvest due to hail storms or wind, and increased pests and diseases. Changes in precipitation patterns were attributed as the main cause of these negative impacts, and include an earlier or delayed onset of

the monsoon season (depending on the farmer’s location), more erratic precipitation and more frequent dry spells during the monsoon season. However, some benefits were also mentioned, notably the ability to introduce new crops at higher altitudes due to the warmer temperatures (Macchi et al., 2011). Many households also own livestock as a source of income and food security; at higher altitude, livestock becomes even more significant than agriculture. In Nepal, livestock comprises just over ten percent of the national GDP and just over one quarter of the agriculture GDP. Especially amongst the poorest people in Nepal, of which 43 per cent live

38