Outlook on climate change adaptation in the Hindu Kush Himalaya

period, reaching 4–5°C in some places. As current observations indicate, winters will likely see greater warming rates than summer months in most regions. Similarly, Wu et al. (2017) analysed the entire HKH region and projected that it will warm significantly under two climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5), with the greatest warming – up to 5 ° C – occurring under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Geographically, the Tibetan Plateau is predicted to warm the most. Compared with the baseline (1975–2005), warming was projected to be greater towards the latter part of the twenty-first century (2066–2095). Other studies that have looked specifically at HKH subregions have found similar results (see Rangwala et al., 2013; Panday et al., 2014; Ali et al., 2015). Precipitation Asia is likely to see a slight increase in precipitation during this century according to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2014). By 2065, South Asia and the Tibetan Plateau are predicted to have an increase in annual precipitation of 7 per cent, and by 2100, 10 per cent and 9 per cent respectively (Christensen et al., 2013). Regional studies also find that precipitation will increase towards the end of the twenty-first century, though some areas will also experience less precipitation. Shrestha et al. (2015a) projects an increase in annual precipitation of 5 per cent

by 2050 compared with the baseline (1961–1990) across upper parts of five of the major river basins of the HKH (Brahmaputra, Ganges, Indus, Mekong and Salween), while some areas will see an increase of as much as 25 per cent. The monsoon season is likely to start earlier and end later and precipitation will become more erratic throughout the season by 2050. In the Brahmaputra and Ganges river basins, monsoon precipitation is predicted to increase by roughly 10 per cent and 15 per cent respectively. The study also projects that winter precipitation will increase in the Upper Salween and Mekong basins, while some areas within the Brahmaputra, Ganges and Indus basins will have between 5 per cent and 25 per cent less precipitation during the same period. Palazzi et al. (2013) modelled the evolution of seasonal precipitations in the HKH region following RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, summer precipitation (June–September) are projected to increase towards 2100, while under RCP 4.5, an increase is predicted until around 2050, with a slight decline expected towards the end of the century. Kulkarni et al. (2013) assessed changes in summer monsoon (June–September) precipitation across the western, central and eastern Himalayas and has predicted that the entire HKH region will become wetter towards the end of the century. However, this change will be most prominent in the central and eastern Himalayas, where precipitation may increase by 20–40 per cent by 2071–2100 compared with the baseline (1961–1990). A study by Panday

et al. (2014) also projects increases in precipitation extremes over the eastern HKH region towards the end of the century. A subregional study of the eastern Himalayas predicts that while summer precipitation is expected to increase, warmer temperatures will result in more water being lost from the atmosphere due to evapotranspiration, thus causing drier and hotter summers. The same study also projects milder and wetter winters in the eastern Himalayas (Tsering et al., 2010) According to Shrestha et al. (2015a), extreme precipitation events are likely to decrease towards 2050, though the amount of rain during such events may increase.

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