Outlook on climate change adaptation in the Hindu Kush Himalaya

Predicted changes Temperature

Observed climate changes over the HKH Extreme climates

Despite difficulties inmaking predictions for the HKH region due to its complex topography, the general consensus is that the region’s observed warming trend will continue throughout the twenty-first century. Regional studies also confirm rising temperatures, greater warming rates at higher altitude areas, and greater warming rates during winter months. According to the Fifth Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2014), Asia will become warmer during this century. While the report does not look specifically at the HKH region, it suggests that the annual average temperature will increase by 2.1°C in South Asia and 2.6°C on the Tibetan Plateau by 2100. The report also finds that winter months will have a slightly higher warming rate than summer months (Christensen et al., 2013). Kulkarni et al. (2013) found that the entire HKH region will become gradually warmer by the end of the twenty-first century. When compared with the baseline (1961–1990), the annual average temperature is projected to increase by 1–2°C in the near future (2011–2040), by 1–3°C by the middle of the century (2041–2070) and by 3–5°C by the end of the century (2071–2100). The western Himalayas will likely experience the highest increase in temperatures compared with the central and eastern Himalayas. Shrestha et al. (2015a) found that across the five of the region’s major river basins (Brahmaputra, Ganges, Indus, Mekong and Salween), temperatures will increase by 1–2°C on average by 2050 compared with the baseline (1961–1990). However, mountainous and high-altitude areas are likely to experience even greater warming rates over the same time

Extreme precipitation event

1961

2012

Upward trend

Intense precipitation

2013

Upward trend

1-d maximum precipitation

Upward trend

3-d maximum precipitation

Upward trend

5-d maximum precipitation

Extreme temperature event

2015

Upward trend

Summer days

Frost days

Downward trend

Upward trend

Warm days

Upward trend

Warm nights

Cold days

Downward trend

Cold nights

Downward trend

1950

2000

Source: RenandShrestha,2017.Datasummarized fromRenetal.,2017;Sunetal.,2017;Zhanetal.,2017

GRID-A RENDAL / L ÓPEZ , 2018

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