Outlook on climate change adaptation in the Hindu Kush Himalaya

In the HKH region, socioeconomic, cultural and political factors, among many others, are shaping people’s vulnerability to the effects of climate change. The IPCC (2014) defines vulnerability as the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected, which in other words, refers to people’s sensitivity to adverse impacts and their capacity to cope with these. Underlying causes of vulnerability to climate change For communities living in the HKH, access to resources and poverty are key factors contributing to their vulnerability to climate change. Poor people 2 have less funds for adaptation measures, moving them towards dangerous tipping points, such as hunger and loss of livelihoods. While some countries in the HKH are experiencing rapid economic growth,

others are struggling with issues of governance and conflict which have exacerbated poverty, such as in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Myanmar. In general, poverty is most prevalent and more persistent in remote mountainous areas (Hunzai et al., 2011). One estimate suggests that although an average of 26 per cent of the populationofHKHcountries live belowthe national poverty line, the figure is 31 per cent within the borders of the HKH region (excluding China and Myanmar) (Hunzai et al., 2011). The higher poverty rates are partly the result of lower access to basic facilities, poor physical access to markets and urban centres, small and decreasing landholdings and more dependents within a household. Limited access to centres of commerce and power restricts not only economic opportunities, but also political influence (Hunzai et al., 2011). Remoteness from markets and services and inaccessibility therefore exacerbates poverty in the mountains (Jodha, 2005; Gerlitz et al., 2014) and also increases vulnerability to and costs of adapting to climate change. For example, transport costs can be prohibitive for improving and adapting infrastructure in remote mountain villages. Although mountainous areas tend to be poorer than lowland areas, there are some exceptions. For example, in India, within the Indian Himalayan region 3 the average proportion of the population living below the poverty line is lower than the national average (Hunzai et al., 2011). Widespread poverty in the HKH directly impacts people, both in terms of producing and acquiring food, and is a major factor contributing to food insecurity (Kurvits et al., 2014). For the majority of HKH mountain communities, subsistence farming is

Population

Percentage of country population living within the HKH region, 2007

Population living within the HKH region, 2007, millions

Afghanistan

89

%

28.4

Bangladesh

1

%

1.3

Bhutan

100

%

0.9

China

2

%

29.5

India

6

%

72.4

Myanmar

22

%

11.0

Nepal

100

%

27.8

Pakistan

23

%

39.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Sources: Population Reference Bureau, 2007, World Population Datasheet; Singh et al., 2011, Climate change in the Hindu Kush-Himalayas: The state of current Knowledge, ICIMOD.

GRID-A RENDAL / L ÓPEZ , 2018

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