Outlook on Climate Change Adaptation in the Western Balkan Mountains

Adaptation action in this sector involves complementarities with forest management and safeguarding of biodiversity. Potential co-benefits between adaptation and reduction of greenhouse gases from agricultural production are being sought in Serbia. Certain adaptation measures may, however, result in higher emissions. For example, a shift towards a more fertilizer- and energy-intensive agriculture to address food security concerns may result in higher emissions. • Low budget for agriculture development and adaptation • Lack of political awareness and institutional capacity to implement adaptation on the ground Risk of economic and livelihood losses for mountain communities reliant on ski tourism, due to reduced snow cover. There are few national or subnational tourism sector strategies that include climate change considerations in the region (Montenegro and the Republika Srpska entity of BiH are the exceptions). However, existing tourism development strategies recognize the importance of mountain tourism, especially ski tourism, and the negative consequences of a shortened skiing season. These strategies put forward artificial snow-making as an adaptation measure. However, the production of artificial snow, as currently practiced, is not believed to be a sustainable solution. In fact, such interventions could generate inter-sectoral conflicts (due to high consumption of energy and water resources), and should be considered examples of maladaptation. Key Policy gaps:

Snow-making systems also imply high costs for installation and maintenance, which could prove a clear economic obstacle in the Western Balkans. Currently, policymakers do not seem to be considering other possible adaptation options – such as economic incentives for behavioural changes to diversify tourism opportunities, and risk-sharing tools such as insurance schemes – to tackle the risk of economic losses in the winter tourism industry. The tourism sector should have a relatively high capacity for climate adaptation. However, there appears to be low awareness in the region about the impacts of climate change on the sector and its related businesses. • Inadequate regional/national policy coverage for adaptation to reduced snow cover in winter tourism • Measures foreseen to address the risk are not sustainable and carry other risks such as inter-sectoral and resource-use conflicts, and economic bottlenecks • Lack of awareness of the problem and adaptation needs in the tourism sector Risk of economic and livelihood losses related to loss of livestock, due to heavy snow precipitation and cold extremes. Existing national legislation on agriculture and rural development also regulates livestock production in almost all Western Balkan countries. However, these laws do not seem to take into consideration climate change adaptation (with the exception of Croatia), Key Policy gaps:

but so far this does not integrate climate change adaptation or reflect on mountain areas. The only exception to this is Croatia, which is transposing the relevant EU directive, paying attention to adaptation aspects important for rural development. On the policy side, there is some consideration of mountain issues and climate change in most countries. Several financial mechanisms at the national level are in place to cover losses and support production in the agricultural sector. These include financial support to farmers in mountain areas, incentives for the conservation and sustainable use of endangered autochthonous and local livestock breeds and plant species, and incentives for diversification. Infrastructural adaptation measures have also been undertaken in some countries (e.g. Serbia and BiH). Some of these are for agriculture (e.g. irrigation systems, dams and accumulation reservoirs), while other purposes include hydropower generation, drinking water, tourism and fish-farming. However, the budgetary support for agricultural development is very low compared to the EU budget. Allocations in 2012 were 25 euros/ha of agricultural land in Albania; 50 euros/ha in BiH; 23 70 euros/ ha in Montenegro, Serbia and Kosovo; 1 and 150 euros/ha in FYR Macedonia. The EU-27 support amounts to 470 euros/ha for its members. Croatia spends 370 euros/ha on its agriculture (FAO, 2014). This indicates the limited potential of the Western Balkan countries to address challenges in this sector, including implementing adaptation measures. According to an analysis of the Agricultural Policy and European Integration in South-Eastern Europe (2014), the climate change policy-making arena in this region is relatively weak, which results in very few mitigation and adaptation activities on the ground.

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