Outlook on Climate Change Adaptation in the Western Balkan Mountains

Executive summary

extreme heat events and wildfires across the region are some recent examples. In the absence of adequate adaptation measures, key risks for the region arising from these hazards include economic and livelihood losses, increased mortality and morbidity, decreased public safety, impaired ecosystem functioning and the loss of species, and decreased energy security through water scarcity. At present, relatively few sectoral policies or strategies adequately integrate goals and measures related to climate change adaptation, despite these sectors being highly exposed to and vulnerable to climate change. Furthermore, mountainous areas are rarely taken into account. Many of the key risks arising from climate hazards in mountainous regions identified in this assessment cut across several sectors. This assessment has analysed these existing sectoral policies to the extent to which can they address the most pressing climate change- related risks, and whether they generate positive effects for the socio-economic system and local communities. Gaps exist for most of the key climate risks identified. The most common gaps include inadequate policy coverage at different scales (e.g. regional, national and local); a lack of institutional coordination (including mechanisms) across sectors; a lack of or limited vertical integration from the EU to local administrations; and limited or low financial capacities to finance adaptation measures. In some cases, no policies exist to address existing or future risks.

The Western Balkans is a mountainous region and a hotspot of climate change. Over the past decades, warming has accelerated, and throughout the 21st century it is projected to be higher than the world average. The observed changes in precipitation over the past few decades are less clear, but almost all climate models agree the countries within the region will experience a significant decrease in precipitation within the 21st century, accompanied by an increase in drought conditions and therefore water availability. Annual flow reductions in the regions’ rivers of up to 15% are projected for 2°C warming above pre- industrial levels, and by up to 45 per cent in a 4°C world. Overall, climatic extremes are projected to become more common, including a significant increase in the number of extreme heat events. Heavier precipitation events are expected in the winter months, whilst summers are projected to become even drier. Many of the impacts will be manifested in the mountain regions and their downstream areas. Mountain-specific climate hazards include reduced snow cover (up to 50 days less by 2050 across the Dinaric Arc); increasing occurrence of winter and spring flooding from intense precipitation and accelerated snowmelt; increases in the frequency and intensity of wildfires; heavy snow precipitation and cold extremes; the appearance of new disease vectors; and decreasing annual river discharge and low flow periods. Many of these impacts are not only a future issue, but also a present-day concern. The catastrophic flooding in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2014, and regularly occurring

Wildfire on the outskirts of Dubrovnik, Croatia

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