Outlook on Climate Change Adaptation in the Western Balkan Mountains

Summary of Key hazards, vulnerabilities and risks

Climate hazard

Key vulnerabilities

Key risks 8

ECONOMIC

Reduced snow cover

• Heavy reliance of winter tourism economy on steady snow cover • High geographic exposure of agricultural and farming land, homes, property and assets, including physical exposure of rural and urban populations to potentially flooded areas • Ageing energy infrastructure located in downstream flood-prone areas • Poor land management and spatial planning practices • Limited capacity of local and national public institutions to respond immediately to natural disasters, as well as to adapt to increased floods • Tailings dams containing toxic pollutants in abandoned or poorly maintained/poorly monitored facilities at risk of failure due to flooding events • Exposure of landmine sites in at-risk floodplains with possibility of dislodging landmines • High exposure of forests, agricultural land and other important habitats (e.g., protected areas) • High exposure of settlements and physical assets, including tourism operations, in wildfire-prone areas including coastal mountains and inland mountain areas • Lack of early-warning and fire-fighting capacities • Populations, including urban, living in the vicinity of wildfire areas and exposed to gas and particulate matter (PM) from wildfire smoke

• Economic and livelihood losses for mountain communities reliant on ski tourism due reduced snow cover • Significant economic and livelihood losses at the individual, local and national levels (including affecting GDP of national economies) due to flooding, including loss of land productivity due to land pollution (e.g. sludge) • Risk of landslides • Death and injury due to flooding • Displacement of populations post-flood event • Outbreaks of existing or novel diseases post-flood event • Polluted water courses and related health issues due to flooding in industrial hotspots • Pollution-related damages to riparian habitats and agricultural land due to flooding in industrial hotspots • Decreased public safety due to flooding in landmine sites • Loss of habitats and ecosystem services • Loss of biodiversity, habitats and ecosystem services, as well as land degradation due to wildfires • Significant economic and asset losses and disruptions to livelihoods at the individual, local and national levels and/or high rehabilitation costs • Displacement of people and communities

SOCIAL ENVIRONMENTAL INSTITUTIONAL ECONOMIC

Flooding from intense precipitation and accelerated snowmelt in spring and winter

ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENTAL SOCIAL

ENVIRONMENTAL

Increase in frequency and intensity of wildfires

ECONOMIC INSTITUTIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL SOCIAL

SOCIAL

• Death or injury through direct or in-direct health impacts e.g. respiratory health problems due to wildfires

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