Outlook on Climate Change Adaptation in the Western Balkan Mountains

potential vectors of dengue fever and Chikungunya fever: the Asian tiger mosquito (A. albopictus) (Caminade et al. , 2012). Such conditions could promote the spread of the mosquito, which is currently found in most of Albania and Montenegro, and north-western areas of Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, while local transmission of dengue in Europe was first reported in Croatia and France in 2010 (WHO, 2014b). There also appears to be a significant risk of the spread of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) in the Western Balkans under future warming (Lindquist & Vapalahti, 2008). Landmines pose a constant risk to humanpopulations in some areas. Bosnia and Herzegovina has one of the most severe landmine problems in the world, with the majority concentrated in mountainous and forest areas, although lowland agricultural areas are also affected. Of the landmines laid during the 1992 to 1995 war, an estimated 120,000 landmines and un-exploded ordnance (UXOs) remain in the ground and 2.3 per cent of the total country is still considered suspect (BHMAC, 2015). With regards to landmines and climate change, recent flooding events highlight the key risks to human health. Many of the mines are made of plastic and can easily be shifted by the floodwaters. Following the floods in May 2015, one mine exploded in the Brčko district during clean-up operations. Residents within Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia reported mine sightings. Many of the warning signs delineating mine fields were also damaged and needed to be repaired (ReliefWeb, 2014). Naturally-occurring flooding can also prove challenging for the regular identification and updating of landmine maps, such as is the case within Livno Polje (Bosnia and Herzegovina) where peatlands are regular flooded (Elmedina Krilasevic, personal communication, 2015).

Flooding from the Sava River, Serbia

Flooding in Croatia, Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, 2014: Impacts for humans, agriculture and energy

The risk of riverine floods is expected to increase in the future in the Western Balkans (World Bank, 2014), where recent events have demonstrated the vulnerability of human populations to floods. The equivalent of two months’ rainfall arrived in just three days in 2014, causing extreme floods (the worst in 120 years for Serbia), killing 51 people andmaking an additional 31,000 homeless. Fifty-one thousand jobs were temporarily lost, and an estimated 125,000 people were driven below the poverty line. Overall, an estimated 1.6million people were affected (United Nations Serbia et al. , 2014). The flooding triggered 2,100 landslides in Bosnia and Herzegovina and 1,000 in Serbia. Flooding and

landslides are thought to have exposed landmines from the 1990s war and toppled warning signs, prompting fears of mines being transported far downstream. The floods were a disaster for agricultural production. An estimated 80,000 hectares of arable land was flooded, damaging cereal crops, soybeans and sunflowers as well as horticultural crops. Infrastructures, processing facilities and farm equipment were also affected. In addition, the flooding disrupted power supplies and led to a reported 40 per cent reduction in Serbia’s electricity production (Word Bank, 2014).

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