Outlook on Climate Change Adaptation in the Western Balkan Mountains

urban waste management, including uncontrolled waste dumping and sewage ground dumping, can also raise the level of ground-level ozone. This has been documented in Pristina, Kosovo 1 (Faberi and Ramadani, 2014). Climate-related natural disasters and extreme events, such as droughts, floods, and wildfires, also directly affect people’s health and well-being. Apart from the risk of being directly killed by floods, they (together with droughts) often cause population displacement, which can lead to outbreaks of infectious disease due to inadequate public health infrastructure, poor water and sanitation, overcrowding and lack of shelter (McMichael et al. , 2006). Most recently, incidents of Sarcoptes scabiei (a parasitic mite that causes scabies) were reported in Tuzla Canton, Bosnia and Herzegovina, following flooding events in May 2015 (Elmedina Krilasevic, personal communication, 2015). Warming temperatures are also likely to lengthen the transmission season for important vector-borne diseases (such as dengue fever) and extend their range, thereby increasing the occurrence of diseases. The increased incidence and intensity of heatwaves are expected to shift temperature-related mortality from winter to summer, with fewer colder-related deaths and more heat-related ones. In the long-term, the net total number of climate-related deaths is expected to increase for the period 2050–2100 (Ballester et al. , 2011). Albania and FYR Macedonia are considered particularly exposed to heatwaves (UNEP/ENVSEC, 2012). In these countries, unprecedented heat extremes could occur in 60 per cent of summer months and droughts could increase by 20 per cent in a 4°C warmer world (World Bank, 2014). Over the last few decades, the climatic conditions in the Balkans have become more suited to one of the

Projected extreme heat waves 2020-2052 RCP4.5 scenario*

2068-2100 RCP4.5 scenario*

Number in 33 years Frequency

Number in 33 years Frequency

15 12 33 63210

15 12 33 63210

*RCP 4.5 scenario assumes that greenhouse gas emissions peak around 2040, then decline.

2020-2052 RCP8.5 scenario**

2068-2100 RCP8.5 scenario**

Number in 33 years Frequency

Number in 33 years Frequency

15 12 33 63210

15 12 33 63210

500 km

**RCP 8.5 scenario considers that emmissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century. Copyright© 2015GRID-Arendal Cartografare ilpresente/NievesLópez Izquierdo

Source:EEA,2015, “Numberofextremeheatwaves in futureclimatesunder twodi erentclimate forcingscenarios”,(eea.europa.eu,accessOctober2015).

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