Outlook on Climate Change Adaptation in the Western Balkan Mountains

temperatures above the comfort zone, and lead to a general scarcity of water (European Commission, 2009). On the other hand, increasing temperatures on the coast may favour tourism in hilly and mountainous areas, and shift coastal tourism towards the end of spring and the beginning of autumn (EU Adaptation Platform). Furthermore, tourists normally visiting “hotter” countries such as Greece may move further north to the Balkan countries for their holidays. There are a number of other wide-ranging, potential indirect climate impacts on tourism within the region. River discharge and lake water levels, fresh water quality and temperature may be impacted, and karst aquifers may be particularly vulnerable. Changes or loss in biodiversity, altered agricultural production (e.g. wine tourism), increasing natural hazards (e.g. landslides and wildfires) and the increasing incidence of vector-borne diseases may all impact tourism to varying degrees. Mitigation policies that seek to reduce GHG emissions will lead to an increase in transport costs and may have an effect on tourists’ travel patterns. However, the

tourism industry will undoubtedly continue to be a growth sector in the region, despite the challenges of climate change. Human health While warmer temperatures may bring some localized benefits, including fewer winter deaths in temperate climates, overall the effects of climate change on human health are expected to be negative worldwide (WHO, 2014). Despite the limited modelling of climate change impacts on human health in the Western Balkans, clear risks emerge; many of which are already manifesting themselves. Heat extremes contribute directly to deaths from cardiovascular and respiratory disease, particularly among elderly people, with heat stress triggering heart attacks and strokes. Warmer air temperatures and heatwaves can also worsen air pollution and the concentrations of ground-level ozone. Even small increases in ground-level ozone can have an impact on health, including lung inflammation, decreased lung function, and an increase in asthma attacks. Poor

Similarly to agriculture, tourism depends on natural conditions to attract visitors – especially in coastal and mountain regions. Climate change is projected to have substantial impacts on sensitive mountain environments, with implications for the attractiveness of mountain environments for tourism and the occurrence of natural hazards (JRC, 2009). Mountain ski resorts are among the tourism sectors considered most at risk, as the duration of the snow season is expected to decrease significantly in the future (see Water chapter 2.2.1 above). The concentration of activities within a smaller surface area and a shorter period of the year could also place more pressure on sensitive mountain ecosystems. Coastal regions are also considered to be highly vulnerable to climatic conditions, with most visitors concentrated during between two and three summer months: the hottest periods of the year. As countries bordering the Adriatic Sea, Croatia, Montenegro and Albania 7 can be considered highly sensitive to climate change, which could impact their tourism sectors in particular. In fact, the Mediterranean region as a whole is expected to become less attractive due to drought and heatwaves, which could raise the

Total a ected people from 2000 to 2015 Climate-related disasters

Albania

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Croatia

FYR Macedonia

Montenegro*

Serbia

2 500 000

3 000 000

3 500 000

4 000 000

4 500 000

5 000 000

0

500 000

1 000 000

1 500 000

2 000 000

Extreme temperature

Floods

Storms

Wildfires

*Data for Montenegro available from 2007 onwards. Source:The InternationalDisasterDatabase (emdata.be,accessOctober2015). Data not available for Kosovo (this designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244/99 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence).

Droughts

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