Outlook on Climate Change Adaptation in the Western Balkan Mountains

hydropower could decrease by 15–35 per cent in a 4°C world (Pasicko et al. , 2012). Given that severe decreases of up to 15 per cent in annual discharge are expected across the Western Balkans in a 2°C world, similar reductions in hydropower generation are possible elsewhere. From the demand side, the trend of warmer winter temperatures and even hotter summers are expected to flatten the electricity consumption profile, as the demand for cooling energy rises and heat energy declines (UNEP/ENVSEC, 2012). Electricity systems may strain to meet the heavier demands for air conditioning, particularly if they rely on hydropower (World Bank, 2009). Energy consumption in the Western Balkans has already increased by 53 per cent 6 between 1995 and 2005, and demand is expected to grow by a further 34 per cent from 2006 to 2030 (EEA, 2008). Economic development, population growth and climate impacts (decreased production and power generation disruption) may together contribute to a rise in electricity prices and the risk of electricity shortages in the region (McDermott &Nielsen 2014). Transport, infrastructure and communication In the Western Balkans region, achieving efficient and modern internal transport networks and infrastructure and communication networks between the region’s countries will be a key enabler of economic growth and transition. This is a political priority of the countries themselves and the European Union, because it is an important means of improving links across the region and integrating the countries in the area into the political and economic mainstream of Europe (Matsoukis, 2008). A series of infrastructure

projects are planned, including through funding from the Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance (IPA) funds, which will link up capitals, major cities and airports in the region, enabling faster economic progress by 2030. Although the transport system has improved over the years, the standards are considerably lower than those of Europe. Among the challenges, road congestion in and around cities, ageing vehicles, poor vehicle maintenance, and the variable condition of roads all contribute to poor air quality. Pressure on the road networks has also increased, with freight transport almost doubling between 2001 and 2006, and public transport within and between cities

considered to be inadequate (UNEP/ENVSEC, 2012). Transport accounts for almost a quarter of the global CO 2 emissions. While the figure is lower for the Western Balkans region, at approximately 14 per cent, reflecting the relatively low level of car ownership, the transport sector’s share of emissions is growing in line with socioeconomic development. This represents a key challenge for the region. The vulnerability of transport infrastructures to climate change is well understood. For example, extreme events (flooding, heatwaves, forest fires and storms) can weaken or damage infrastructure and cause disruptions. Higher temperatures can cause pavements to soften and expand, reducing the lifetime

Đurđevića Tara Bridge, Durmitor National Park, Montenegro

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