Outlook on Climate Change Adaptation in the Western Balkan Mountains

Solar electricity potential

Wind power potential

Geothermal energy potential

Yearly sum of global irradiation received by optimally-inclined PV modules

Geothermal heat-flow density*

Annual mean wind speeds at a height of 80 m

80 50 30 0 150 mW/m 2

kWh/m2

m/s > 9.4

1 650 1 550 1 400 1 300 1 800

5.9 - 6.9

< 5.9

* Measures the relationship between heat-flow and temperature gradient.

100 km

100 km

100 km

Source:GlobalEnergyNetwork Institute, (geni.org,accessNovember2015). Copyright© 2015GRID-Arendal • Cartografare ilpresente/NievesLópez Izquierdo

Source:GlobalEnergyNetwork Institute, (geni.org,accessNovember2015). Copyright© 2015GRID-Arendal • Cartografare ilpresente/NievesLópez Izquierdo

Source:GlobalEnergyNetwork Institute, (geni.org,accessNovember2015). Copyright© 2015GRID-Arendal • Cartografare ilpresente/NievesLópez Izquierdo

Balkans countries was built in the 1960s and 1970s and is already in need of widespread rehabilitation and replacement (IEA, 2008). Climate change is expected to pose risks to power transmission network functions, and reduce efficiency or alter structural integrity, especially for older, poorly maintained facilities (UNEP/ENVSEC, 2012). Accompanying the expected decreases in annual river discharge and changing seasonality of river flows, overall hydropower production in Europe including the Western Balkans is expected to decrease by 1.66 TWh, or 1.43 percent compared to 2005 production levels (Hamududu and Killingtveit, 2012). One study from Croatia predicts that energy generation from

Renewable energy provides a significant share of the region’s energy and is higher than the EU-27 average (EEA, 2008). Almost all of the renewable energy comes from large hydropower plants; wind, solar and geothermal sources remain negligible at less than 1 per cent of the total. The EU, as part of its terms for accession, will require all countries to have larger proportions of energy from renewable sources. Investments in hydropower, biodiesel, wind and solar power stations will multiply (Ralchev, 2012). The share Renewable energies in the Western Balkans and future plans

of renewable energies within the total energy mix is expected to increase significantly, with hydropower remaining the largest source of renewable energy (EEA, 2008). More than 500 hydropower projects are under development in the Western Balkans region (IUCN, 2015). Many of these will take place on largely intact river systems and within or in proximity to key biodiversity sites within the region (IUCN).

30