Outlook on Climate Change Adaptation in the Western Balkan Mountains

Energy

Production per capita GHG emissions

Total Production

Production by type of source

equivalent Excluding Land-Use Change and Forestry

Millions of Tonnes of oil equivalent

Tonnes of oil equivalent

Millions of Tonnes of CO 2

Renewables (solid biofuels, solar, wind, hydro and geothermal)

Others

12

56.2

11

Serbia

23.5

10

Total

9

3.3

8

Part from fuel combustion

7

Bosnia and Herzegovina

6

5

4

Croatia

3

No data available for Kosovo* GHG total emissions

Albania FYR Macedonia Kosovo* Montenegro

2

1

0

2000

2005

2010

2012

0

50

100%

0.5 1.0

1.5

2.0

0,08

0,12

0,15 0,16 0,18

0,21

0,24

Energy intensity

Tonnes of oil equivalent/1 000 USD

Sources: IEA,“EnergyAtlas”, (iea.org,accessOctober2015);WRI,“ClimateDataExplorer” (cait.ori.org,accessOctober2015).

Copyright© 2015GRID-Arendal Cartografare ilpresente/NievesLópez Izquierdo

*This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244/99 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence.

infrastructure across countries, with extensive daily and seasonal exchanges of electricity occurring. The energy intensity (an indicator of energy efficiency) 5 of the Western Balkans is high. This can be attributed to three main factors: the degraded state of the energy infrastructure; high energy losses during transformation, transmission and distribution; and inefficiency in the end-use sector. Energy systems within the region are considered to be very vulnerable to extreme events and changes in river temperatures (World Bank, 2014). The

extent and nature of the impacts depend on the degree to which countries rely on different energy sources. Thermal power production is vulnerable to changes in climate through water availability and temperature, due to the high dependence of these power plants on cooling water. Lower levels in lakes and rivers, reduced run-off, accelerated evaporation and warmer water could also reduce the amount of water for cooling or cause restrictions on cooling water intake or discharge, constraining generation capacity (World Bank, 2009). Taking into account the effects of climate change on river

water temperatures and river flows, the capacity of nuclear and fossil-fuelled power plants in Southern and Eastern Europe could face a 6–19 percent decline for the time period 2031–2060 compared to 1971–2000 (Van Vliet et al. , 2012). More frequent extreme events, such as flooding, will also threaten all types of energy infrastructure and possibly drive up maintenance costs (UNEP/ ENVSEC, 2012), although there is only a limited number of studies assessing this (World Bank, 2014). Much of the energy infrastructure in the Western

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