Outlook on Climate Change Adaptation in the Western Balkan Mountains

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borders Montenegro, has 2,600 different species of vascular plants, a high percentage of endemic and rare species and contains one of the last two primeval forests in Europe. The number and size of protected areas in the region has been increasing, although the share of protected land is still low if compared with that of the EU. Some protected areas have been established recently or are in the process of being included in the transboundary protection system, such as Neretva River Delta, Lake Skadar, Lake Ohrid, Lake Prespa, Bjeshkët e Nemuna Mountains, Djerdap National Park, Balkan and Tara Mountains, and the Danube River. Biodiversitywithinthe regionfaces anumberof threats, including deforestation, soil erosion, uncontrolled land use and pollution, as well as unsustainable levels of hunting, fishing and grazing (Centre for Climate Adaptation, 2015). Generally speaking, there are significant gaps in information and knowledge related to the impact of climate change on biodiversity in the region and across the countries. Climate change is expected to impact all ecosystems in the region, however certain ecosystems with limited possibilities for species to migrate are considered particularly at risk. High mountainous and mountain ecosystems (above 1,500m) are particularly sensitive because temperature is rising faster at these altitudes than at lower altitudes, and high-altitude species that live in cooler temperatures have nowhere to go. Predicted large reductions in snow cover are expected to lead to declines in alpine flora and fauna because vegetation of the pre-mountain regions will be replaced by vegetation from temperate zones. Individual species such as oak will be threatened in hilly ecosystems, because migration will be hindered due to their heavy seed.

Climate change is also a very real risk for forests and their management. Forest fires are already a major hazard across the Balkans. A significant increase in the number and intensity of wildfires across the region has been linked to higher temperatures in summer, prolonged droughts and earlier melting of snow in the mountains (Mátyás, 2010). In the future, the probability of forest fires occurring, the length of the fire season, and fire frequency and severity are likely to increase in the Mediterranean (Alcamo et al. , 2007). Furthermore, rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration, higher temperatures, changes in precipitation, flooding, and drought duration and frequency will have significant effects on tree growth. These changes will also have associated consequences for the frequency of pest and disease outbreaks and changes in fire occurrence, and changes in wind storms and frequency – all of which will have big implications for forest ecosystems (European Commission, 2008). Mountain forest ecosystems are especially vulnerable due to a rise in the elevation of snow cover and altered river run-off regimes. Biodiversity and protected areas The Western Balkans is a biodiversity hotspot within Europe and contains a large variety of ecosystems. The territory encompassing the former Yugoslavia is one of six European centres of biological diversity, containing 39 per cent of Europe’s vascular plants, 51 per cent of fish, 74 per cent of birds, and 68 per cent of mammals (World Bank, 2003 in UNEP/ ENVSEC, 2012). There is a high level of endemism in the Balkan countries because of the extremely varied diversity of geology, soils, climatic ranges and altitude. For example, FYR Macedonia has 900 endemic species (UNEP/ENVSEC, 2012). Some of the highest levels of endemism occur at high altitudes. For example, the mountainous Sutjeska National Park in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which

Protected areas

Hectares 500 000 200 000 30 000

Percentage of total territorial area

15 %

Montenegro

Kosovo*

Albania

Croatia

Serbia

FYR Macedonia

*This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244/99 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence.

Bosnia and Herzegovina

2005

2011 2012 2013 2014

Sources: WorldBankDatabank;Sida'sHelpdesk forEnvironmentandClimateChange,2012, “WesternBalkan–EnvironmentandClimateChangePolicyBrief”;CroatianMinistryof EnvironmentalandNatureProtection,2014,“Fifthnational report toCBD”;SerbianMinistryof AgricultureandEnvironmentalProtection,2014,“Fifthnational report toCBD”;AnnualReport on theStateofEnvironment for2014, “EPAMontenegro”;MinistryofForeignTradeand EconomicRelationsofBosniaandHerzegovina,2012,“Reporton thestateof theenvironment inBosniaandHerzegovina in2012”;KEPA/KINP,2015, “StateofNatureReport2010-2014”.

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