Outlook on Climate Change Adaptation in the Western Balkan Mountains

Forests coverage per country

Forest fires Area burnt by fires between 2010 and 2013*

Bosnia and Herzegovina 2 185 000

Percentage of land (2013)

Hectares

0

20 000 40 000 60 000 80 000

Forest area Hectares

42 %

2010 2011 2012 2013

Montenegro 543 000

FYR Macedonia 1 007 200

Albania

40

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Croatia 1 926 800

Croatia

Serbia 2 807 800

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32

Kosovo**

Albania 774 020

FYR Macedonia

28

Montenegro

Data for Kosovo** 2010 and 2011 and for Serbia 2010 are not available.

Serbia

Data not available for Kosovo*

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* Estimates derived from satellite imagery for burnt areas of at least 40 ha or above. **This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244/99 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence.

0.55

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.85 %

0.30 0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.60 0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

Forests rents (percentage of GDP)**

Sources:EuropeanCommissionJointResearchCentre, “ForestFires inEuropeMiddleEast andNorthAfrica”,2010,2011,2012and2013.

Source:The WorldBankDatabank (databank.worldbank.org,access October2015)

** Forest rents are roundwood harvest times the product of average prices and a region-specific rental rate. *This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244/99 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence.

Copyright© 2015GRID-Arendal Cartografare ilpresente/NievesLópez Izquierdo

Copyright© 2015GRID-Arendal Cartografare ilpresente/NievesLópez Izquierdo

While climate change poses risks to current and future crop and livestock production, other factors play an important role in determining productivity, which is currently considered low within the region. Although the yields in Western Balkans countries have improved since around 2000, they remain below the EU average, and most of the countries remain net importers of agri-food products (Volk, 2010). The key weaknesses are predominantly small-scale farms, poor execution of agricultural policy reforms, inefficient institutions and a lack of infrastructure (Volk, 2010; World Bank, 2014). The considerable portion of the Western Balkans that is

mountainous or hilly is less suitable for agriculture. In addition, ageing and depopulation/migration of these areas can hold back agricultural development (Volk, 2010). Forests and biodiversity Forests occupy a large proportion of the land area in the Western Balkans – from 28 per cent in Albania up to 44.7 per cent in Kosovo 1 (Tomter et al. , 2013, World Bank, 2012) – and play a significant social and economic role in all of the countries, both in terms of the national economies and local livelihoods.

People in rural areas rely heavily on fuelwood not only for energy, but also for employment and additional income. The wood industry is an important contributor to the development of local economies. In some countries, the contribution of forestry to GDP is high (8 per cent in Montenegro), but in other countries it ranges between 0.5 and 2.5 per cent (Markus-Johansson et al. , 2010); however, the true value to local economies and livelihoods is estimated to be much higher. Forests also provide numerous ecosystem services including maintaining biodiversity, mitigating and adapting to climate change effects and regulating soil and water regimes.

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