Outlook on Climate Change Adaptation in the Western Balkan Mountains

capacity available. This makes crops susceptible to rising temperatures, increasing evaporation and changing precipitation patterns. In particular, the increasing occurrence of droughts in the Balkans has been identified as a key risk for agricultural production (Giannakopoulos et al. , 2009; Gocic and Trajkovic, 2014; Kos et al. , 2013). The effects of climate change are already present in the agriculture sector in the Western Balkans. One regional analysis (REC, 2011) showed that extreme events and higher intra-annual variability of minimum temperature have led to a higher probability of crop failure from frost damage. Increases in the occurrence of hot days and declines in rainfall or irrigation have also resulted in reduced yields, while warmer winters can reduce the yields of stone fruits that require winter chilling. On the other hand, increased temperatures in spring and summer have been shown to accelerate crop development for short-cycle crops. Future projections of climate change and its impact on agriculture at the European level indicate that in southern areas, including the Balkans, there will be more losers than winners. Key risks include lower harvestable yields, higher yield variability, and reductions in area suitable for growing traditional crops (Olesen and Bindi, 2002). Climate change in the absence of adaptation measures will be largely detrimental to agricultural production, including for the most important agricultural products in terms of production area and economic output, cereals and fruits (predominantly grapes), of which Serbia is the biggest producer (Mizik, 2010; Volk, 2010). Significant declines in yield are predicted, according to the limited studies available. Projections for Albania indicate that the production of rain-fed grapes and olives will decline by about 20 per cent

if there is 1.8°C warming. In FYR Macedonia, yield declines of up to 50 per cent are expected for maize, wheat, vegetables and grapes at 1.62°C warming in the Mediterranean and continental areas (Sutton et al. , 2013). In Serbia, most yields are projected to decline for rain-fed crops for the period 2030 to 2060, compared with present day (Giannakopoulos et al. , 2009). However, negative impacts of climate change on yield could be reduced or even reversed if adaptation options were implemented, but these would require 40 per cent more water (Giannakopoulos et al. , 2009). Some alpine/mountainous regions, which are today characterized by lower average temperatures and shorter growing seasons than lowland areas, may benefit. For example, wheat yields in alpine areas are projected to increase considerably in Albania (by 24 per cent) and FYR Macedonia (50 per cent) due to rising temperatures and the extension of the growing season (Sutton et al. , 2013). On the other hand, pasture yields and grassland ecosystems for livestock grazing may be negatively affected by sustained drought and heat, and decline over large parts of the Western Balkans (World Bank, 2014). Overall, the livestock sector is currently under-represented in climate impact research for the region and few modelling studies exist (World Bank, 2014), although there is evidence that livestock in the region can be adversely affected by a greater heat stress (REC, 2011). Declining quantity and quality of feed could impact prices and lead to greater fluctuations (Miraglia et al. , 2009). People in the Western Balkans spend a relatively higher proportion of their income on food. Between 35 and 50 per cent of household expenditure is spent on food, drink and tobacco, compared with 16 per cent in the EU-27, making households more vulnerable to increasing food prices (Volk et al. , 2010).

water and wind erosion (UNEP/ENVSEC, 2012). In Serbia and Montenegro, the excessive cutting of trees in mountainous areas is among the causes of increased erosion and flooding (ENVSEC and UNEP, 2012). However, the quality of land has improved in certain areas. Parts of Montenegro have, rather than degrading, become steadily more resilient since the 1950s, due to a significant increase in vegetation across the country, leading to decreased run-off and better infiltration (Nyssen et al. , 2012). Food resources All countries in the region have extremely diverse natural potential for agricultural production, ranging from fertile plains and river valleys to the less productive karst, hilly and mountainous areas. Agriculture remains an important part of the economies of Western Balkan countries, despite the growth of industry and service sectors. It employs a large number of people, and occupies a large proportion of land in each country. On average, 11 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) is generated by the agricultural sector in the region (the share of agriculture, forestry and fishing in national GDPs for 2012 ranged from 5 per cent in Croatia to 21.3 per cent in Albania; far above the EU-27 average of 1.7 per cent) (FAO, 2014). Eighteen per cent of the population (up to 41 per cent in Albania) are employed in agriculture (World Bank, 2012), which is often the economic and development engine for rural areas, where the proportion of people employed in agriculture is much higher than the national averages. Agriculture is also one of the sectors most vulnerable/ sensitive to changes in climate, because the growth cycles of animals and crops are closely bound to climate and weather conditions. Most crops within the region are rain-fed, with little irrigation or storage

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