Outlook on Climate Change Adaptation in the Western Balkan Mountains

Trends and scenarios

Trends in annual temperature 1960-2014

+0.5 ºC/decade

+0.4

Observed changes in climate Temperature

has warmed the most (Kostopoulou and Jones, 2005). One important effect of this trend is that the frequency and severity of temperature extremes has also increased across the region. In Albania, for example, the increase in the number of days over 40°C has been one of the clearest observed changes in recent decades. Heatwaves across the region are increasing in frequency and severity. Precipitation The observed changes in precipitation in the last fifty years are not as pervasive or clear as the observed warming. Generalizing about the observed climatic trends is difficult due to the complex topography of the mountains, especially as the Western Balkans has two climatic areas – the Mediterranean and the alpine/continental. However, overall the region has received a decreasing amount of precipitation, with Albania, Croatia and FYR Macedonia displaying the clearest downward trend. The mountain region of Gorski kotar in Croatia had the greatest decrease. Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Serbia experienced mixed or unchanging precipitation patterns. Droughts have become significantly more common in Serbia, FYR Macedonia and Kosovo. 1 Within the region, the Dinaric Alps generally receive the most precipitation (Lelieveld et al. , 2012). The mountains in the Western Balkans are therefore central to the flow of fresh water (Schneider et al. , 2013), as decreasing precipitation and increasing evapotranspiration are combining to make the region, and soils in general, drier.

+0.3

+0.2

Temperatures have risen in the region in the last fifty years, and every country in the region has experienced warming with this trend accelerating in the most recent decades (UNFCCC National Communications). Summer is the season which

+0.1

0.0

No data Outside coverage

Trends in annual precipitation

1960-2014

mm/decade + 35 Wetter

0

-35

-70

Drier

Sources:EEA,2015, “Trends inannual temperatureacrossEurope”; EEA,2014, “Trends inannualprecipitationacrossEurope”, (eea.europa.eu,access October2015). Copyright© 2015GRID-Arendal • Cartografare ilpresente/NievesLópez Izquierdo

500 km

Sunrise in the Dinaric Alps

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