Outlook on Climate Change Adaptation in the South Caucasus Mountains

environmental topic – all three countries have biodiversity strategies and consequently all have action plans under the strategies, which are regularly monitored and updated. Armenia The Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan of Armenia (MoNP and GEF 1999) does not specifically address the issues of climate change nor its mountain regions. However, the recent national report submitted to the CBD in 2014, clearly addresses both issues (CBD 2014). Mountain ecosystems protection and conservation is central to this policy document, as one would expect in a report on such a mountainous country as Armenia. The main climate change threats – their causes and mechanisms – to ecosystems and important components of biodiversity, are addressed in a dedicated section. According to the report, as a result of climate change an expansion of the arid ecosystems, reduction of the areas covered by forests as well as sub-alpine and alpine landscapes, and increased vulnerability of forests are expected. Based on climate modelling of 452 species registered in Armenia’s Red Book, ecosystem and habitat changes triggered by climate change will affect the survival of 74 species of high vascular plants. Moreover, climate change can increase water temperature in water reservoirs, such as Lake Sevan, which will threaten particular species. Also the report states that climate change will, in the long run, affect the well-being and health of the Armenian population through its impact on the food and water supply. In light of the above, in the current draft Strategy and State Programme of the Republic of Armenia on Conservation, Use and Reproduction of Biological Diversity (2016–2020), climate change is mentioned as among the main threats to biodiversity (Ecolur 2015). The national target to “Improve protection of biodiversity habitats to prevent their degradation”

Plan presented in the document refers to a number of concrete measures over the short, medium and long- term that take into account national climate change trends and forecasts: • By 2015, develop a framework followed by an Ecological Network plan for the entire Caucasus Ecoregion. • Undertake all necessary measures to increase forest resilience to climate change. • Protect and sustainably manage rivers and/or lake catchment areas. • Develop and begin implementation of regional strategies and coordinate mechanisms for a number of species in light of the potential climate change-induced habitat changes in each country. An interesting trend can be observed when comparing the previous Ecoregional Conservation Plan developed in 2006, with the updated 2012 plan (WWF 2006; WWF/CBC 2012). Given that harmonization of approaches and commitment for joint action between the CBD and UNFCCC is a fairly recent development, it is not surprising that climate change adaptation was not explicit in the 2006 version of the Ecoregional Conservation Plan. This can also be seen when comparing the priorities of the national strategies of the South Caucasus countries initially submitted to the CBD over the 1999–2006 period with more recently submitted national reports (CBD 2015). The same trend can be observed in the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity which was updated to include the Aichi Biodiversity Targets for the 2011–2020 period, and two specific targets on climate change (CBD n/a). In earlier strategy documents climate change and, in particular, climate adaptation is rarely mentioned, while recent documents, including both reports and strategies, address climate change related issues as top priorities. In general, policy papers on the South Caucasus countries cover biodiversity better than any other

Georgia

is connected with Aichi target number five. The draft action plan includes planning of the following measure: “Carry out vulnerability assessment for key ecosystems of Armenia given the predicted climate change, including modelling of changes”. Azerbaijan The National Biodiversity Strategy of Azerbaijan (President of Azerbaijan 2006) approved in 2006, as in the documents of the same period of the other two countries of the South Caucasus, has neither a reference to climate change, nor mountain regions. However, the Fifth National Report to the CBD clearly indicates the importance of protecting high mountain ecosystems, both in a regional and national context, and climate change is presented as one of the key pressures on biodiversity (MoENR 2014). In addition, issues specific to vulnerable ecosystems are also highlighted such as overgrazing, competition for scarce resources such as water, and

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