Outlook on Climate Change Adaptation in the South Caucasus Mountains

Key risks related to climate change

The main risks associated with climate change are related to the economy, human safety and security, and changes in ecosystem services. Considering

their relevance to concrete adaptation measures, the risks are clustered below according to key economic activities and ecosystems. The identified risks result

from interaction between possible hazards fully or partly triggered by climate change and vulnerabilities of existing human systems.

Summary of Key hazards, vulnerabilities and risks

Key vulnerabilities

Key risks 8

Climate hazards

Ecosystems

• Predicted upward shift of climatic zones and vegetation. Loss of control of pests and disease, fires, landslides, flooding, erosions etc. Reduction in provision of services (e.g. food, livestock).

• Reduction of ecosystem services (water purification, preservation of soil). • Loss or change of ecosystems (e.g. water ecosystem, forest ecosystems). Loss of endemic species, mixing ecosystem types, increase numbers of invasive spices. • Increase in wildfires • Decrease in productivity and decrease in crop yields (and livestock) leading to outbreaks in food availability and security of seeds. • Risk of resource loss e.g. agro-biodiversity and land. • Lost agriculture and pastureland or reduction in its productivity. • Damage of infrastructure. • Increase in conflicts between the water-based sectors such as energy and agriculture.

• Increase in temperature, changes in precipitation. Droughts. Intensity and frequency of extreme heat. • Increase in number of natural disasters land slides, mudslides etc.

Agriculture

• Vulnerability of agriculture sector, vulnerability of selected social groups including rural remote communities. • High degree of land degradation and desertification, soil erosion etc. • Poor land management. Poor water management in and between economic sectors. • Limited ability of framers to adapt and administrative systems to respond. Poor compensation mechanisms in cases of breakdowns.

• Increase in temperature, changes in precipitation pattern. • Extreme weather events such as hail storms, late frosts, strong winds, heavy rainfalls, droughts etc.

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