Outlook on Climate Change Adaptation in the South Caucasus Mountains

Furthermore, increasing temperatures during the spring and summer months, coupled with reduced water availability in rivers, is also likely to enforce rural-urban migration due to the adverse effect on agriculture. 40 per cent of Armenia’s arable land is already uncultivated due to a combination of climatic and socio-economic issues (CENN 2013b). Eco-migrants are especially vulnerable as they are currently not recognised under national legislative frameworks as Internally Displaced Peoples (IDPs), which places them outside of any legal protection from governments (CENN 2013a,b,c). The frequency of extreme temperatures and heat waves has increased in South Caucasus (MoENRP 2015; MoENR 2010; MoNP 2015) and scientific studies show a direct link between extreme temperatures and increased risk for people with cardiovascular or chronic respiratory diseases, especially the elderly (McMichael et al . 2006; Cheng and Su 2010). Records from Azerbaijan show that during heat waves, the number of first aid calls related to blood, respiratory and neural diseases increases significantly (MoENR 2010). Urban heat stress is a particular concern in the region, though to a lesser extent in higher altitudes due to lower temperatures. Tbilisi, Georgia, for example, may see an increase in dangerously hot days from an annual average of 21 days between 1955 and 1970, to an annual average of 63 days between 2020 and 2049. Several diseases associated with warmer weather are likely to become more prevalent in the South Caucasus, including vector-borne diseases such as

leishmaniasis and malaria (MoNP 2015; MoEPNR and UNDP 2009). While the risk of malaria is currently low throughout the region, a warmer climate may lead to new outbreaks (MoENRP 2015; MoENR 2010; MoNP 2015). According to Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication to the UNFCCC (MoENR 2010), a warmer climate has already increased the length of the epidemic season. Areas between 500 and 1,200 m.a.s.l have had the highest increase in the length of the season, by 15–30 days, compared to the Kura-Araz lowland, where the season has extended by 5–10 days. A study from Armenia found that the projected increase in air temperatures may cause malaria outbreaks along Lake Sevan, but also increases the risk of outbreaks in sub-mountainous and mountain areas due to the vertical shift of climate zones brought about by warmer temperatures (SHMS 2013). Warmer temperatures and extreme events, especially floods, are also thought to increase the incidence of food and water-borne diseases. There has been a marked increase in such incidents in Armenia as well as Azerbaijan during recent years (MoENR 2010; MoNP 2015) The effects of climate change on human health and safety is unlikely to be distributed evenly among the people of the South Caucasus. One reason for this is the different lifestyles and unevenly distributed resources between men and women. A key parameter that determines the vulnerability of humans is the rate of poverty. For the South Caucasus, women tend to have fewer financial resources than men, leaving women with fewer means and possibilities

to withstand or recover from climate change impacts (Social Service Agency Georgia). The financial opportunities for women to cope with the stress of climate change are fewer when compared to those for men, and even less in the mountain regions (UNDP 2013a).Whilemen are often responsible for providing financial resources, women in the South Caucasus are typically tasked with securing basic resources such as water, food and energy, and this can be hindered if natural disasters occur. Perhaps influenced by these responsibilities, women are also found to be more psychologically affected by natural disasters than men. In addition, they face greater challenges when applying for relief aid, which further increases their vulnerability to climate change (CENN 2013). The rates of migration in South Caucasus are highest in Armenia and Azerbaijan, and show substantially higher rates for men than women. The main reason for men leaving their communities is to work abroad. Most of the male migrants from Armenia and Azerbaijan are married, whereas the female migrants are typically single. InGeorgia, gender does not seemto be a determinant of migration (Dermendzhieva 2011). Whenmale migrants are married, this means that they are leaving behind a wife and possibly children. The daily responsibility of securing water, food and energy for the family is left entirely to the women. The out- migration of men frommountain villages not only has consequences for the family he leaves behind but also for mountain communities as a whole.

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