Outlook on Climate Change Adaptation in the South Caucasus Mountains

of mountain tourism. Damage to transportation networks, gas- and electricity systems and sanitation and water systems are also a concern for tourism (MoENRP 2015). Another negative impact of climate change is the reduction in the size of glaciers in the Greater Caucasus Mountains, which are a popular attraction for tourists, as well as being important for water and energy security. Cultural monuments and historical buildings, important attractions in, for example, Upper Svaneti, may also be negatively impacted by increased precipitation and air humidity as it can cause the mortar that bonds the stone together to dissolve (MoENRP 2015). Human health and safety Climate change directly impacts human health and security. Natural disasters have the most obvious and immediate impact on people’s health and security as they abruptly destroy property, livelihoods, infrastructure, can be fatal, and often force people to leave their homes and communities. The exposure to floods and land- and mudslides is especially high across the SouthCaucasus, and themountainous areas and its communities are hardest hit (UNIDSR 2009). Heavy rainfall in June 2011, for example, resulted in floods and landslides in western and eastern Georgia that caused severe damage to farmland, roads and bridges, canals, water and gas pipelines, and communication networks. Seven people died and a total of 3,000 households were affected (Red Cross 2011). The following year, an extreme hailstorm, windstorm and flash flood affected 20,000 families in the Kakheti region of Georgia and damaged over 5,200 houses, as well as water, gas and electricity distribution systems. The total economic impact when considering the damages and losses came to US$ 123 million (Bergsma 2012).

climate change will impact the tourism industry on several fronts. First, it can lead to increased costs for accommodation and catering businesses (e.g. if additional cooling is required due to increasing temperatures). It is also expected that the security of tourists may be at risk from the projected increase in natural hazards such as mudflows, floods and rock falls. Historical sites and monuments, as well as infrastructure may also be at risk (MoNP 2015). The Georgian assessment of the tourism sector focused on three regions in the country –Adjara, Upper Svaneti and Kakheti. It used the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) developed by Mieczkowski (1985) to determine the impact of climate change on the tourism sector. According to their analysis, the weather conditions in Adjara have become more favorable to the industry over thepast fiftyyears. Predictedchangeswill continue this trend and prolong the spring/summer season in mountain areas, while the conditions will worsen in coastal areas by 2050. Upper Svaneti (Mestia), a region famous not only for mountain tourism but also for its cultural and architectural monuments will be negatively affected by increased temperatures. In contrast, better environmental conditions are expected in Kakheti from October to March. Indeed, as summer temperatures in the lowlands are predicted to reach uncomfortable levels, mountainous areas with their cooler climates can expect an increase in summer tourism (MoENRP 2015). As mountain regions are one of the most exposed areas to natural disasters, increased development of mountain tourism must be supported by improved preparedness and monitoring of natural disasters as these are predicted to increase in frequency and magnitude. In Mestia, for example, the number of injuries is 3 to 4 times higher than the national average, a result of the high frequency of natural disasters and the high risks involved in some forms

Climate-related diseases in the Caucasus in 1999-2013

Incidence per 100,000 population

Malaria

10 15 20 25 30

0 5

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Leishmaniasis

4

3

2

1

0

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Circulatory system diseases

4 Thousand

3

2

1

0

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Respiratory system diseases

Thousand

12

8

4

0

Armenia Georgia Sources : National Statistical Services; MLHSA-Georgia; FAO-data. 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Azerbaijan

Graph by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2015.

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