Outlook on Climate Change Adaptation in the South Caucasus Mountains

The lack of research and available information may be a reflection of the current political focus. Since the three countries gained their independence, many issues have required the focus of politicians such as securing a stable economy, reducing poverty and preventing corruption. Contamination from industrial sites and the influence of climate change have not been a priority but attention on this issue is increasing (UNEP/ENVSEC 2014; UNECE 2010; USGS 2014). Tourism Climate change has already started to affect the tourism sector around the world. The World Tourism Organization recognizes mountain tourism as being especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Tourism is affected directly through the potential degradation of infrastructure due to events such as floods and erosion. In addition to these are various indirect impacts of climate change, including the changes to the food and water supply (UNWTO 2015). Tourism in the South Caucasus is a growing sector that is of increasing importance to the national economies of the three countries. Georgia has the most developed tourism sector, followed by Armenia and Azerbaijan. In 2015, tourism and travel contributed 20 per cent, 12.7 per cent and 8.4 per cent to the economies of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, respectively (WTTC 2015 a,b). The mountain areas are popular destinations and comparable to other tourism destinations such as beaches and lakeside resorts. At the mountain destinations, tourists are offered a wide variety of activities includingmountain climbing, hiking, rafting, winter sports, national parks, bird watching, and cultural heritage sites. Eco-tourism and agro-tourism are also becoming more popular.

Shahdag Mountain Resort, Azerbaijan

Due to the vulnerability of mountain areas to climate change, mountain tourism is likely to be affected by the predicted increase in temperature, changes to precipitation patterns, and natural disasters. It will also lead to changes in ecosystems and biodiversity (e.g. changing patterns in bird migration, changes to the quantity and quality of snow) that can have adverse impacts on tourism (MoENRP 2015; Green Georgia 2015b; Azerbaijans.com 2015; Welcome Armenia 2015). The most popular alpine ski resorts in Bakuriani and Gudauri in Georgia are already affected by shorter winter seasons with less snow. The tourism industry is also affected by extreme events appearing more frequently in the mountain regions. In Upper Svaneti in West Georgia, for example,

95 per cent of the region is under threat of avalanches of varying degrees (MoENRP 2015), while Adjara, Georgia, is exposed to the risks of mudslides and landslides (MoENRP 2015). The vulnerability of the tourism sector in South Caucasus was assessed in the Third National Communication to UNFCCC from Georgia (assessing the entire Georgian tourism sector) and Armenia (for the tourism industry in the Vayots district) (MoNP 2015; MoENRP 2015). Based on these assessments, some conclusions can be drawn from the impacts of climate change on tourism activities in the region of South Caucasus. The Armenian assessment of the Vayots district predicts

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