Outlook on Climate Change Adaptation in the South Caucasus Mountains

cooking, such as burning firewood, shrubs and dung, as well as plastic and other waste, in combination with electricity and gas (SE4ALL 2012). In total, poor households in Georgia may use as much as 30 per cent of their income on energy (Gamisonia 2014). Poverty reduction is, therefore, an important strategy to increase energy security in rural mountain areas and in general to increase their adaptive capacity to climate change. Industry The industrial sectors of the three countries were developed during the Soviet era with a focus on rapid economic growth and little consideration for the potential environmental impacts.Themain industrial activities taking place in the mountainous regions of South Caucasus are related to the extraction and processing of natural resources. These activities are important to all three countries but they have a high impact on nature. Mining activities alter the structure of the landscape, which in combination with climate change can have severe consequences. In addition, mining and processing activities often create toxic waste, which can have adverse impacts on the surrounding environment if not securely contained. With the increasing impacts from a changing climate, it becomes more important to consider these when planning for new mining activities (USGS 2010; USGS 2014; UNECE 2010). The physical condition of industrial structures in general is another important issue. Old structures are generally less secure and more unstable and so are less resilient to extreme weather events already occurring in the South Caucasus and predicted to occur more often in the future. The combination of extreme events (e.g. landslides, mudflows, and floods) and unstable infrastructure can have severe and destructive consequences. In Azerbaijan alone,

extreme events, such as floods, land- and mudslides. Such events reduce and disrupt production and can prevent delivery of energy. This was already witnessed when a landslide on the Georgia-Russia border caused major damage to the North-South gas pipeline transporting gas from Russia to Armenia in 2014 (Agenda 2014). Due to the projected increase in temperatures, especially during summers, it is expected that energy demand for cooling will increase in summer months (WB 2009). Urban heat stress is likely to be the most serious climate change-related health issue in the region. In the city of Vanadzor, Armenia (1,424 m.a.s.l) dangerously hot days are expected to increase seven-fold by 2040 as compared to current figures (UNDP 2011). Despite its vulnerability, all three countries are investing in new hydropower plants to increase their energy security and meet their growing energy demands and renewable energy targets. In Georgia, for example, forty new hydropower plants are to be developed to meet that country’s ambitious goal of generating all of its electricity through renewable resources in the coming years, up from 92 per cent (Green Georgia 2015). Armenia had 115 small hydropower plants in 2010 and another 88 are under construction while an additional 108 have been approved (Government of Armenia Protocol Session Resolution No. 3 of January 22, 2009). Due to the sensitivity of hydropower plants to climate change, it is crucial that future water flow reductions are considered in new developments (Stanton et al . 2009). Even though electricity is available throughout the South Caucasus region, energy poverty is widespread in remote villages due to the high costs of electricity and gas (WB 2015). Poor households commonly use traditional sources of energy for heating and

Potential hydroresource, Energy consumption and Power generation by HPP in the South Caucasus in 2013

GWh

Armenia

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

GWh 0 5,000

Azerbaijan

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

0 5,000

GWh

Georgia

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000

0 5,000

GWh

South Caucasus

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000

Potential hydroresource

Energy consumption

Power generation by HPP

Sources : National Statistical Services of Armenia and Azerbaijan; MENR; ESCO; East Invest.

Graph by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2015.

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