Outlook on Climate Change Adaptation in the South Caucasus Mountains

with high rainfall. 10 Pasture yields are also expected to increase in the western and eastern mountainous regions of Georgia by 44 and 87 per cent, respectively. 11 The region that is likely to benefit the most is the eastern mountain region in Georgia, which may experience substantial yield increases in crops such as corn, tomato and wheat of 3, 23, and 17 per cent respectively. 12 The rest of the Georgian territory, however, is expected to experience decreased yields (Ahouissoussi et al . 2014). Future warmer temperatures and reduced water availability is further expected to increase aridity and intensify desertification processes, especially in Armenia. Here, 80 per cent of the territory shows notable signs of desertification due to a combination of human pressures and natural causes. Increased aridity is expected to reduce the fertility, and further degrade the quality, of arable land with adverse affects on people’s livelihoods (MoNP 2015). Water constraints are perceived as the most severe impact of climate change on the agricultural sector. Climate change will inevitably increase the number of areas needing irrigation, the water demand for crops, and consequently reduce water availability. Azerbaijan already struggles with a water deficit. In Armenia alone, the demand for irrigation water is expected to increase by about 202 million m 3 by 2030 due to reductions in river flow and summer precipitation. This increase in demand, however, is expected to take place mostly in the Ararat valley. In the region of Shirak (altitudes between 1400–2200 m), the demand is expected to increase by 13.2 million m 3 . A reduction of 11 per cent in river flow is expected by 2030 as compared to average water flow for the period 1961–1990. 12 A 10–23 per cent reduction in summer precipitation is expected by 2040 (MoNP 2015). Climate change is also predicted to shift the agro- climatic zones higher in elevation. This can create more beneficial conditions for agriculture in areas

previously limited by low temperatures. At present, the areas located at around 2,500 m in the Upper Svaneti region in Georgia, for example, are on the borderline of permanent snow and glaciers and low temperatures restrict crop cultivation. The expectation is that by 2100, it will be possible to cultivate earlier: potatoes, oats, barley, vegetable and root crops due to a warmer climate (UNDP 2014a). An additional stress factor for farmers in the mountain regions of the South Caucasus is the high and

increasing exposure to extreme events, including heat waves, drought, hail storms, floods, late frosts, heavy rainfalls, heavy winds, as well as land- and mudslides that cause severe damage or loss of crops, livestock, and infrastructure. Many of these events have steadily increased over the years and have had severe impacts on crop yields, for example, due to impacts from heavy precipitation and hailstorms, as well as harvest failures in corn and bean production in Georgia (Ahouissoussi et al . 2014; MoNP 2015; Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources of Georgia 2015).

Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yields in the 2040s under the Medium Impact Scenario, no adaptation and no irrigation water constraints

Agricultural Regions

High rainfall Irrigated Low rainfall Subtropics Lowlands Intermediate Mountainous Excluded area Azerbaijan Armenia

Abkhazia

30% 20% 10% 0% -10%

5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4

Georgian Eastern lowlands - Alazani Basin AR

I n g u r i

12

Rioni

11

10

Rioni

9

Mtkvari (Kura)

Alazani / Ganykh 9

Tbilisi

Adjara

Georgia Eastern lowlands Eastern mountainous Western lowlands Western mountainous

GEORGIA

12

9 10 11 12

9

10

5

Kura

2

3

AZERBAIJAN

Mingachevir Reservoir

ARMENIA

Kur (Kura)

7

4

0% -10% -20% -30%

Lake Sevan

Baku

2

6

4

3

1

Yerevan

4

A r a s - A r a x

5

2

Armenian lowlands - Upper Aras Basin AR

A r a s - A r a z

Nakhchyvan ( Azerbaijan)

Kur

2

5

6

1

8

Wheat

Corn

Potato Tomato Grape Apricot

Azerbaijan irrigated AR

50 km

0

10% 0% -10%

Irrigated crop Rainfed crop Percentage change in yield Watermelon Mandarin/ Orange

Cotton Alfalfa Pasture

Note: Some crops were not analyzed in all three countries.

Studied agricultural region or subregion

AR - Agricultural region

Source : Ahouissoussi at al., 2014.

Map by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2015.

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