Outlook on Climate Change Adaptation in the South Caucasus Mountains

impact of climate change on crop yields towards 2040 for the region, including mountainous areas in Georgia and Armenia, as well as areas with high precipitation in Azerbaijan, which correlates with higher-altitude regions. The report concludes that the majority of the region is likely to be negatively affected by higher temperatures and evaporation, decreasing and more varied precipitation patterns, reduced river runoff, and increased frequency and severity of extreme natural disasters. The various expected impacts can result in reduced, and less certain crop quality of and livestock

yields. One example is the mountainous region in the Upper Araks basin in Armenia. As presented in the figure below, the estimated changes in yield for this region show significant decreases when considering the changes in temperature, precipitation and the expected decrease in water available for irrigation. 8 It is, however, also evident that the expected decreases in yields are estimated to be more adverse at lower altitudes. The changes in crop yields, however, vary between locations. For certain crops in the mountain regions

the changes may, in some cases, be beneficial. When assessing the impact of changes in temperature and precipitation, Armenia’s intermediate (1001–1700 m.a.s.l) and mountainous (1701–2500 m.a.s.l) areas are likely to benefit from increasing yields in tomato, watermelon and wheat crops. Wheat, which is the country’s key crop, may experience an increase in yields of 38 per cent in the higher altitudes. 9 While crop yields will likely decrease throughout Azerbaijan, pasture yields are expected to increase by 5–11 per cent with the highest increases expected to take place in areas

Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yields in the 2040s in the South Caucasus

Agricultural Regions

Abkhazia

High rainfall Irrigated Low rainfall Subtropics Lowlands Intermediate Mountainous Excluded area Azerbaijan Armenia

5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4

I n g u r i

0% -20% -40% -60% -80%

12

Rioni

10

11

Georgian Eastern lowlands - Alazani Basin AR

Rioni

9

Mtkvari (Kura)

Alazani / Ganykh 9

Tbilisi

Adjara

GEORGIA

Georgia Eastern lowlands Eastern mountainous Western lowlands Western mountainous

12

9

9 10 11 12

10

5

Kura

2

3

Georgia

AZERBAIJAN

Armenian lowlands - Upper Aras Basin AR 4

Mingachevir Reservoir

Kur (Kura)

7

0% -20% -40% -60% -80%

Lake Sevan

Baku

2

4

3

Yerevan

1

4

6

ARMENIA

A r a s - A r a x

5

2

A r a s - A r a z

Nakhchyvan (Azerbaijan)

Kur

2

Wheat

Corn

Potato Tomato Grape Alfalfa

5

6

Percentage change of Irrigated crops yields in the 2040s relative to current yields under the medium impact climate scenario, adjusted for estimated irrigation water deficits.

1

Azerbaijan irrigated AR

8

50 km

0

Base scenario Low Impact scenario Medium Impact scenario High Impact scenario Scenarios for 2040

Percentage change of crop yields in the 2040s relative to current yields for irrigated crops, no adaptation but including irrigation water shortages.

0% -20% -40% -60% -80%

Note: Alfalfa in Georgia, corn in Azerbaijan and tomato in Armenia were not analyzed.

Studied agricultural region or subregion AR - Agricultural region

Armenia

Source : Ahouissoussi at al., 2014.

Map by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2015.

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