Outlook on Climate Change Adaptation in the South Caucasus Mountains

Terek

Irrigated zones and water shortage scenarios for 2040 in the South Caucasus

S u l a k

Abkhazia

RUSSIAN FEDERATION

T e r e k

I n g u r i T s k h e n i s t s k a l i

Sokhumi

61

Assa

Argun

31

CASPIAN SEA

Rioni

15 14

35

BLACK SEA

B L M H

23

Rioni

13 11

Alazani Basin

GEORGIA

Mtkvari (Kura)

B L M H

B L M H 95 22 31

Batumi

Alazani / Ganykh

Adjara

Tbilisi

I o r i

K h r a m i

Samur

Ganykh Basin

D e b e d

C h o r o k h i

Kura

Q a b i r l i

A g h s t e v

Samur- Middle Caspian Basin

TURKEY

ARMENIA

Mingachevir Reservoir

55

Upper Aras Basin

Baku

45

Irrigated area

Eastern

H r a z d a n

Lake Sevan

Lower Kura Basin

21 23

Aras - Base scenario - Low Impact scenario - Medium Impact scenario - High Impact scenario B L M H Percent of irrigation water demand Scenarios for 2040 23

K u r ( K u r a )

67 70 77 78

B L M H

Yerevan

A r a s ( A r a x )

AZERBAIJAN

Vorotan

Kur

B L M H

Nakhchyvan (Azerbaijan)

Lankaran- Vilesh - Southern Caspian Basin

Aras (Araz)

Voghji

68 71 75 78

Lake Van

Nakhchyvan

Sources : Ahouissoussi at al., 2014. FAO-AQUASTAT; www.melioracia.ge Map by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2015. Critical river basins border

Arax

IRAN

50 km

0

B L M H

Reduced water availability is expected to play a role in water quality issues across the region. The countries are still struggling with pollution problems resulting from poor sanitation facilities and industrial activities, including mining pollution. It will affect local aquatic ecosystems and play a role in water sharing. Agriculture While the contribution of agriculture to the gross domestic product of the three countries has declined over the past decade, the countries are still largely dependent on this climate-sensitive sector. Employment in agriculture and subsistence

farming are vital activities amongst rural mountain communities where the percentage of poverty is highest throughout the region. Due to limited arable land, many families combine crop production with animal husbandry. In addition, there are other stress factors such as high levels of land degradation, including soil erosion and salinization due to a mix of human activities (e.g. cultivation practices, overgrazing, and deforestation). Climate change further exacerbates the situation through increases in extreme weather events such as heavy precipitation, which causes soil instability, flooding, and land- and mudslides (MoENR 2010; MoNP 2015; MoENRP and UNDP 2015).

The capacity of farmers to adapt to the impacts of climate change is low due to poorly managed irrigation and drainage systems, limited financial resources restricting the use of new technologies, inadequate support from and access to agricultural extension services, and poor access to weather and climate information. Thus the impacts of climate change on agriculture in the South Caucasus regionmay be severe (Ahouissoussi et al . 2014). Changes in crop yields are one of the most direct ways climate change is expected to impact agriculture. The World Bank study “Building Resilience to Climate Change in South Caucasus Agriculture” (Ahouissoussi et al . 2014) includes a comprehensive assessment of the

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