Outlook on Climate Change Adaptation in the South Caucasus Mountains

Ecosystems of the South Caucasus

Terek

Terek

Abkhazia

6

Mestia

Sukhumi

I n g u r i

4

10

Sulak

3

Rioni T s k h e n i s t s k a l i

11

Rioni

7

CASPIAN SEA

BLACK SEA

RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Kutaisi

Gudauri

Poti

1

Gori

Telavi

GEORG I A

4

Alazani / Ganykh

Mtkvari (Kura)

10

Tbilisi

Batumi

Adjara

6

7

Bakuriani

Iori

2

4

K h r a m i

Akhaltsikhe

Rustavi

8

Samur

Guba

10

Swamps

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Ç o r u h ( C h o r o k h i )

11

Kura

Shaki

Q a b i r l i

Alaverdi

Floodplains

Debed

Mingachevir Reserv.

Spitak

6

6

Sumgayit

Marshes and swamped forests

Gyumri

Vanadzor

Ganja Mingachevir

H r a z d a n

Hirkan forests Colchis forests

11

8

8

Lake Sevan

Baku

Armavir

Yerevan

Humid and semi-humid forests

K u r ( K u r a )

A r a s ( A r a x ) 2

2

ARMENIA

AZERBA I JAN

Conifers

11

Semi-arid steppes Arid steppes

9

Neftchala

Goris

TURKEY

Nakhchyvan (Azerbaijan)

Kur

Kapan

Sub-nival plants Glaciers Sub-alpine and alpine meadows

10 11

Aras (Araz)

Nakhchyvan

6

9

Lake Van

IRAN

Lankaran

5

Van Map by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2015. Sources: CEO-Caucasus-2002, UNEP; Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus, Autrement, 2010.

Agriculture in the Ararat valley, Armenia

100 km

0

1974 and 2011, while the Tviberi glacier, the largest in Georgia, has decreased from 43.1 square km to 23 square km. The glacial retreat has caused sections of the glaciers to disconnect from each other, such as the Kvitlodi glacier that is now 800–900 m away from the main Tviberi glacier (Gobejishvili et al . 2012). Warmer temperatures, increasing evaporation and decreased precipitation will lead to decreased water availability, crucial to sustaining the health of aquatic ecosystems, as well as meeting the water needs for energy, agriculture, industries and domestic use (Stoke et al . 2006; MoENR 2010; MoENRP 2015). The glacial runoff from the Inguri River in Georgia,

for example, is predicted to decrease by 40 per cent by the end of the century as compared to 2010. As a result, the annual river runoff will decrease by about 13 per cent (MoENRP 2015). A study conducted by UNDP in 2011 called “Regional Climate Change Impacts Study for the South Caucasus Region” found that water flow of three trans-boundary river basins fed by glacier runoff and/or snowmelt are likely to decrease due to declining precipitation and increased temperatures by the end of the century. The basins are the Alazani (Gamik) (expected reduced water flow of 26–30 per cent), Khrami-Debed (expected reduced water flow of 45–66 per cent) and Aghstev (expected reduced water flow of 59–72 per cent) (UNDP 2011).

While there are no glaciers in the Lesser Caucasus Mountains, higher temperatures and less precipitation will also reduce water flow in rivers and lakes (UNDP 2011; MoNP 2015). The water level of Lake Sevan, for example, Armenia’smost important aquatic ecosystem, is expected to recede due to a 40 per cent reduction in the water flow from the 28 rivers and streams that flow into the lake (MoNP 2009). Warmer temperatures are also likely to affect species in aquatic ecosystems. The expected increase in water temperature of Lake Sevan is predicted to increase by 3.6–4°C by 2100, causing serious damage to the whitefish (Coregonus lavaretus) population, the most dominant fish species of the lake (MoNP 2015).

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