Outlook on Climate Change Adaptation in the South Caucasus Mountains

nature of ecosystems gives no consideration to human borders, and the shifting geography of ecosystems can, therefore, have a significant impact when assessing the changes within national parks and other territories defined by humans. One example is how the changing ecosystems will impact the Lake Arpi National Park in Armenia, situated at an altitude of around 2000 m. Here, the altered conditions could be beneficial for the Asia Minor ground squirrel ( Spermophilus xanthoprymnus ), Transcaucasian water shrew ( Neomys schelkovnikovi ), Eurasian otter ( Lutra lutra ), Dalmatian pelican ( Pelecanus crispus ), Corncrake ( Crex crex ), marbled polecat ( Vormela peregusna ) and Armenian sea-gull ( Larus armeniacus ). Other species, however, such as the Black stork ( Ciconia nigra ) and Common crane ( Grus grus ) are likely to decline due to the altered ecosystems. This scenario, however, gives no indication on how these species are changing outside the borders of the national park, and emphasizes the necessity of not limiting ecosystem and species assessments to only anthropogenic borders. Species in mountain ecosystems are vulnerable to changes in climate, as they tend to thrive in fairly narrow climatic zones. While there is limited data available on the impact of climate change on species in the South Caucasus Mountains, Armenia’s Third National Communication provides some information. According to the report, climate change will likely have a significant impact on 238 plant species out of the 452 species described in Armenia’s 2011 Plant Red Data Book (MoNP 2015). Changes in habitats may result in population reductions and the threat of species extinction in Armenia. For another

Adishi Glacier in Georgia

140 plant species (thermophilic species), warmer temperatures will expand the area suitable for growth. Some vertebrate animals, such as the minor ground squirrel, grey pochard, corncrake, otter and water shrew, may also benefit from improved conditions for feeding and breeding, as well as a larger habitat. Aquatic ecosystems in the South Caucasus, and especially mountainous, glacier ecosystems, are particularly vulnerable to the predicted continuation of warmer temperatures (Shahgedanova et al . 2009). Only the Greater Caucasus Mountains supports the formation of glaciers in the region (there are no

glaciers in Armenia). Georgia has the largest glaciated area and the greatest number of glaciers. Research shows that between 1985 and 2000, the glaciated areas in the region decreased by 10 per cent. According to the study, glacier melting is driven primarily by temperatures that have been warming since the 1970s and especially since the mid-1990s (Stokes et al . 2006). 7 More specific examples include the decrease of glaciers in the Gusarchay Basin in Azerbaijan from 4.9 to 2.4 square km over the past 110 years (MoENR 2010). In Georgia, all glaciers on the southern slope have retreated due to climate change. The Chalaati glacier, for example, retreated by 436 m between

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