Outlook on Climate Change Adaptation in the South Caucasus Mountains

Vulnerability and impact assessment

Ecosystems The mountainous areas of the South Caucasus have a wide variety of climate zones, ranging from cold moderate alpine peaks to temperate, humid and arid landscapes. 6 The variation in climate zones gives the region its unique and diverse biodiversity, including many rare and endemic species (CEPF 2003). Caucasus region has been recognized as holding an important reservoir of biodiversity, and is indeed considered a globally significant ‘biodiversity hotspot’ based on the richness of species, and level of endemism, recorded. As part of the Caucasus-Anatolian-Hyrcanian Temperate Forest, Armenia’s forests are recognized as a global conservation priority under WWF’s Global 200 Ecoregions (Ulander and Ter-Zakaryn 2012). In the Southern Caucasus, the majority of forest ecosystems in the mountains are of great importance for mountain communities. Georgia has the highest

percentage of forest cover in South Caucasus at almost 40 per cent, followed by Azerbaijan and Armenia both having forest cover of 11.8 per cent and 11.5 per cent respectively (MoENRP 2015, AZ Stat, MoNP 2015). In Georgia, over 60 per cent of its forests are situated on mountain slopes at an elevation of 1,000 m.a.s.l or higher (MoENRP 2015; MoENR 2010; Ulander and Ter-Zakaryn 2012). Forest ecosystems protect biodiversity, store carbon, and store and purify water. In addition, they provide benefits vital to human livelihoods and food security, including construction materials, fuel wood, food (mushrooms, nuts and berries), medicinal plants, and grazing areas for animals. The ability of trees to prevent soil erosion and landslides is essential in the hazard-exposed mountains. The forests, however, are under constant pressure from deforestation. Deforestation rates were especially high after the collapse of the Soviet Union when energy shortages were common. Wood became the main source of energy for heating and cooking, 100 80 60 40 20 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Illegal logging in Georgia in 2000-2013 Thousand m ³ Source : National Statistics Office of Georgia. Graph by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2015.

and in rural areas wood is still used to reduce costly electricity and gas bills. Illegal logging for commercial purposes also remains a serious problem in the region (Ulander and Ter-Zakaryn 2012). In addition to human pressures, forest ecosystems are vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation. An assessment conducted for Georgia’s Third National Communication to the UNFCCC found evidence of climate change impacts on forests in all three areas investigated – Adjara, Mestia and Borjomi Municipality – that may reduce the critical ecosystem services provided by them. The various climate change-related impacts included an increase in areas infested by pests and diseases, introduction of new diseases (Adjara and Borjomi), increased frequency of drought and wildfires (Borjomi), and displacement of species due to warmer temperatures, and prolonged vegetation period (Mestia). Similar risks for forest ecosystems due to current and future changes in temperature and precipitation are underlined in Armenia’s Third National Communication (MoNP 2015). This report also gives a comprehensive oversight into the predicted upward vertical shift of climatic zones and vegetation. In general, drier ecosystems will expand in the lower altitudes while the forest ecosystems are likely to migrate to higher altitudes. Forest coverage is expected to gradually decline as forestland gradually converts to open arid forests, and further to semi- desert and steppe ecosystems. The altered ecosystems will not only change in structure but also in the composition of species. The boundless and fluid

Illegal logging in Armenia in 2000-2013 Thousand m ³

100 80 60 40 20 0

Armstat According to

Hayantar, MARA

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

2000

Sources : National Statistical Service of Armenia; ICARE Foundation, 2011. Graph by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2015.

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