Outlook on Climate Change Adaptation in the South Caucasus Mountains

Landslides and mudflows in Georgia in 1995-2013 1000 Case

900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

1999 1995 1997 2001 2003 2005 Landslide

Mudflow 2007 2009 2011 2013

Victim, person

12 11 10

9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

1995

1999

1997

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Sources : National Statistics Office of Georgia. Graph by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2015.

Landslide, Georgia

(MoENRP 2015), while the frequency of droughts has increased almost threefold in recent years; mostly in Shida, Kvemo Kartli, Kakheti and upper Imereti (Ahouissoussi et al . 2014). As documented in Georgia’s Third National Communication to the UNFCCC (MoENRP 2015), the increase in landslides, floods and mudflows is caused by a combination of factors, including an

increase in anthropogenic pressures (population growth, removal of vegetation on hillsides and mountain slopes, construction on unstable soils, development of artificial waterways), increase in tectonic activity, and climate change (warmer temperatures and increased frequency of heavy precipitation). The likelihood of these incidents occurring increases during heavy precipitation or abnormally high amounts of seasonal precipitation.

As a result, areas projected to experience an increase in such events are also likely be affected by higher numbers of hydrological disasters. As temperatures are expected to increase across the region, it is also likely that the areas prone to drought will increase and that droughts will become more intense (World Bank 2006).

19