Outlook on Climate Change Adaptation in the South Caucasus Mountains

Natural hazards

The South Caucasus region is highly exposed to natural disasters and its mountainous areas are particularly high-risk zones. Disasters prevalent in the region include landslides and mudslides, floods, flash floods, droughts, avalanches, hailstorms and earthquakes. The countries lie in a region with moderate to very high seismic activity and are thus especially exposed to earthquakes that may have devastating impacts on human life, buildings and infrastructure. This seismic activity may also trigger secondary events such as land- and mudslides, avalanches and flash floods in the mountainous areas (UNIDSR 2009). The 1988 earthquake in Spitak, Armenia exemplifies the vulnerability of the region to natural disasters and the social vulnerability of its people. This earthquake, and the secondary events it triggered, resulted in 25,000 casualties, affected a total of 1.6 million people and led to an estimated US$14.2 billion in economic losses (UNIDSR 2009).

Large areas of the country are under threat from natural hazards. In Georgia, almost 70 per cent of the territory, home to some 57 per cent of the population, is at risk from disasters, including mudflows (32 per cent of the total area), flooding and erosion (27 per cent), landslides (24 per cent), and avalanches (17 per cent) (MoENRP 2015). Armenia’s main threats are from land- and mudslides, primarily on mountain slopes and hillsides. About one-fifth of all communities in Armenia have been affected by landslides. Areas with the highest risk of mudslides include Vayots Dzor (100 per cent of area at risk), Tavush (78 per cent), Syunik (70 per cent) and Lori (65 per cent) (MoNP (2015). Azerbaijan and Georgia also have a high exposure to floods. In fact, the Greater and Lesser Caucasus Mountains are some of the most flood-prone areas in the world. In Azerbaijan, floods are most prevalent on the southern slope of the Greater Caucasus and in the high mountain zone of Nakhchivan AP (MoENR 2010). Droughts occur less frequently than floods in Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan but the economic losses are generally higher than those associated with flooding (UNIDSR 2009). While the region is naturally prone to many natural disasters, climate change is generally expected to exacerbate the frequency, intensity and severity of such events (Ahouissoussi et al . 2014). The three countries have already recorded an increase in natural disasters. The frequency of floods, for example, has already increased in Georgia and Azerbaijan (MoENR 2010; MoENRP 2015). Between 1995 and 2001, floods in Azerbaijan occurred 2-5 times per

Landslides and floods in Armenia in 2003-2014

Case

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Damaged road in Georgia

year but increased to 8-27 annual events between 2002 and 2008 (MoENR 2010).Themelting of glaciers in the Great Caucasus Mountains also increases the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF). Between 1985 and 2000, the number of glacial lakes increased by 50 per cent, significantly increasing the risk of outburst floods that are devastating for downstream communities and infrastructure (MoENRP 2015). Since 1987, landslides have increased by 63 per cent

2003

2005

2007 2009 2011 2013

Landslide

Flood

Sources : National Statistical Service of Armenia. Graph by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2015.

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