Outlook on Climate Change Adaptation in the South Caucasus Mountains

Georgia – Warmer and wetter/drier The Likhi Ridge that runs down the centre of Georgia has given the country two distinct climates – a humid climate in the west and a dry climate in the east. The observed changes to the climate, therefore, differ between east and west. Regardless of this, temperatures throughout Georgia have increased between 1961–1985 and 1986–2010. Temperatures in the west warmed by 0.3°C, while mean annual temperature increased by 0.4–0.5°C in the east. Precipitation, on the other hand, has generally increased in the west and decreased on the Likhi Ridge and areas to the east. In the west, the mountain zone of Svaneti and the mountain area of Adjara have both seen increases of about 14 per cent in precipitation (MoENRP 2015). Data presented in the adaptation strategy for Upper Svaneti indicate that the average annual temperature at Mestia, located at an altitude of 1 441 metres above sea level (m.a.s.l), has increased by 0.3°C between the periods of 1961–1985 and 1986–2010. Summers have seen the highest increases in temperature (+0.7°C), compared to winters which have become slightly colder (–0.1°C). Mestia receives about 918 mm of precipitation annually. A comparison between the two periods indicates a 10 per cent increase in precipitation, with winters becoming substantially wetter (+30 per cent) and summers drier (–8 per cent) (UNDP 2014a).

The summers of 1998, 2000, 2006 and 2010 were extremely warm, indicating an increase in extremely warm temperatures since the 1990s (MoNP 2015). This is supported by precipitation data which shows that the climate in Armenia has generally become drier. Observations between 1935 and 1996 indicate a 6 per cent reduction in precipitation, and almost 10 per cent between 1935 and 2012. This reduction is not, however, evenly distributed throughout the country. While the northeastern and central regions (Ararat valley) have become more arid, precipitation in the southern, northwest and western part of the Lake Sevan Basin has increased over the observation period. The number of days with heavy precipitation and hailstorms has increased due to changes in global atmospheric circulations (MoNP 2015). Azerbaijan – Warmer and drier Between 1991 and 2001, the mean annual temperature in Azerbaijan increased by 0.4°C. Annually, this increase is three times as high as the temperature increase of 0.36°C that occurred between 1961 and 1990. Precipitation has decreased significantly throughout the country. On average, annual precipitation has decreased by 9 per cent over the past decade, although some areas have been more affected than others. Compared to the period 1961–1990, precipitation declined by 17.7 per cent in Ganja-Gazakh, 17.1 per cent in Nakhchivan, 14.3 per cent in the Kura-Ara(k)s lowland, 6.4 per cent in Shaki-Zagatala, 2.6 per cent in Guba-Kachmaz, and 1.2 per cent in the southern region (MoENR 2010).

Blossoming peach orchard in Azerbaijan

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