Mountain Adaptation Outlook Series - Synthesis Report

2.5 WEATHER EVENTS (°C) TEMS EVENTS ENED MS

IMPACTS EVENTS There is already sufficient and growing evidence that the risks of climate change in mountains are being realized. In other words, climate change is not only a risk for the future, but is already leading to real, and often catastrophic, impacts across mountain regions. The evidence also indicates that these impacts are increasing over time. Mountains are also experiencing a disproportionately high number of disasters (compared to other environments) (Kohler & Maselli, 2009). In the face of these impacts, mountain countries and societies need to adapt, and there is an urgency to this task. SINGULAR EVENTS

OF IMPACTS AGGREGATE IMPACTS

RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REASONS FOR CONCERNS (RFCs)

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Source: IPCC (2018) Global Warming of 1.5 °C , http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/ TIONAL RISK DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE sk of severe impacts and the presence of significant irreversibility or nce of climate-related hazards, combined with limited ability to adapt ature of the hazard or impact widespread impacts NAL RISK DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE of severe impacts and the presence of significant irreversibility or e of climate-related hazards, combined with limited ability to adapt ure of the hazard or impact As a way of organising and communicating the many risks of climate change, the IPCC has developed a framework which groups global risks into five key Reasons for Concerns (RFCs). RFC1 (Unique and threatened ecosystems) includes mountain ecosystems. As shown in this graphic, a global temperature increase of 1.5°C will lead to severe and widespread impacts on unique and threatened ecosystems; warming of 2°C or more will lead to a very high risk of severe impacts. 0.87 °C (2006-2015) 0.5 1.5 0 1 LEVELS OF ADDITIONAL RISK DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE Very high risk of severe impacts and the presence of significant irreversibility or the persistence of climate-related hazards, combined with limited ability to adapt due to the nature of the hazard or impact Severe and widespread impacts Associated impacts are both detectable and attributable to climate change with at least medium confidence No associated impacts are detectable and attributable to climate change Assessment of risks at 2°C, or higher are beyond the scope of the present assessment RFC1 UNIQUE & THREATENED SYSTEMS RFC2 EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS RFC3 DISTRIBUTION OF IMPACTS RFC4 GLOBAL AGGREGATE IMPACTS RFC5 LARGE SCALE SINGULAR EVENTS AVERAGE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL LEVEL

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