Sustainable mountain development in East Africa in a changing climate

400 recorded species of mammals and 7,500 species of plants and animals, of which 15 per cent are endemic. The Virunga National Park, in the Albertine Rift, has the largest diversity of vertebrate species of all protected areas in Africa, including the endangered okapi (UNEP, 2014). Furthermore, 14 per cent of Africa’s vascular plants are found within the Eastern Arc Mountains, an area that represents only 0.24 per cent of Africa’s total land area (Platts et al., 2012). Due to the climatic and topographic differences, and the diversity of species within the region, as well as differences in climate models, results from studies on the impact of climate change vary considerably. Several studies, however, find that flora and fauna will move towards higher altitudes as temperatures increase. Such results were found by Thuiller et al. (2006), in their assessment of the vulnerability of African mammals to climate change in 11 national parks across Africa. The study found that while 25 to 40 per cent of the 144 assessed mammal species will become critically endangered or extinct by 2080 (assuming that the species cannot spread) in Africa as a whole, Mount Kenya National Park could see an increase in species richness by between 50 to 80 per cent, because of the park’s cooler climate at a higher altitude. While the study did not include other mountainous areas, it may be assumed that other national parks in East Africa could see similar results. However, climate change is likely to have an adverse effect on species already living at higher altitudes as their habitat decreases when they are forced to migrate upwards. A study by BirdLife International (2015), focusing on the Albertine Rift, found that of the 14 endemic bird species assessed, all are at severe risk from the impacts of climate change. By 2085, it is projected that the habitats for these birds

will move upwards and shift slightly northwards. On average, the birds will migrate to altitudes 350 metres higher, which will severely limit their habitat. Similarly, the African Conservation Centre (2012) finds that suitable areas for species dependent on high elevation and moist climates will shrink and move upwards towards the peaks. On the other hand, Platts et al. (2012), studied the impact of climate change on plants in the Eastern Arc Mountains and found that two-thirds of the plants studied will move in different directions (up and down) in different parts of the region, depending on changes in seasonality and water availability in each location. It is therefore, not a given that all species will migrate towards higher altitudes. The impact of climate change on forests includes a documented increase in forest fires on Mount Kilimanjaro. As a result of a drier climate, the incidence of wildfires in the montane forest belt has increased and the damage is more severe. This has displaced the forest line to a lower altitude and changed the vegetation composition (Hemp, 2005). As a direct consequence, there has been a drastic decline in water flow from the mountain. Hemp (2005) estimates that the loss of forests through fires since 1976 has reduced the annual dew by 25 per cent, an amount equivalent to the annual demand for drinking water for 1 million people living around Mount Kilimanjaro. Furthermore, a study by Krishnaswamy et al. (2014) identified that climate change, mainly through increasing temperatures, has caused a browning of the vegetation in the eastern part of Africa across eight higher elevation national parks since the 1990s, indicating that the land is either degraded or the productivity of the land has decreased.

Greater Virunga

Lake Albert

Greater Virunga

Semliki National Park

Fort Portal

Kibale National Park

3566

Rwenzori Mountains National Park

Beni

Margherita Peak 5109

R w e n z o r i

Kasese

Katonga

Butembo

Virunga National Park

Lake George

DRC

Queen Elisabeth National Park

Lake Edward

UGANDA

Sarambwe Reserve

Virunga National Park

Bwindi Impenetrable National Park

Rutshuru Hunting Area

2510

V i r u n g a

Mgahinga Gorilla National Park

Ramsar sites World Heritage sites (UNESCO) National Parks Hunting Areas Reserves Main Peaks Presence of armed groups

3674

4127

3474

3711

Volcan Karisimbi

4507

Musanze

Vulcanoes National Park

Goma

Gisenyi

RWANDA

Lake Kivu

Sources: J.K.Stearns,C.Vogel,2015, “The landscapeof armedgroups in theEasternCongo”,Centeron International Cooperation;www.greatervirunga.org;maps-for-free.com Copyright©2015GRID-Arendal ·Cartografare ilpresente/NievesLópez Izquierdo

50 km

34