Sustainable mountain development in East Africa in a changing climate

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frequency of extreme events such as flooding and landslides. Rainfall variability is also a major problem for rain-fed agriculture, which is the most common form of farming in East Africa (FAO 2014). Some areas may also receive less rainfall, such as parts of the Ethiopian Highlands (William and Funk 2011). In areas with a large amount of arable land, such a change is likely to have a negative impact on the agricultural sector and exacerbate food insecurity in an already food insecure region (IGAD and ICPAC, 2007; Alweny et al., 2014). Biodiversity The mountain ecosystems of East Africa are rich in biodiversity and are an important resource for local communities. They provide food, freshwater, fibre, fuel, shelter, building materials, medicines and other important ecosystem services. As such, biodiversity serves as an important safety net for the rural poor (Boko et al., 2007; Alweny et al., 2014). Understanding how climate change will impact on natural resources is a major concern (Platts et al., 2012). Changes to biodiversity are also likely to adversely affect the tourism industry (UNEP, 2014). Known for their high concentration of plants and animals of which many are endemic, the mountainous areas of East Africa are some of the main tourist attractions in the subregion (UNEP, 2014). Much of the Eastern Afromontane biodiversity hotspot, which stretches from the mountains of Saudi Arabia in the north to Zimbabwe in the south, is found in East Africa. It includes the Albertine Rift, the Eastern Arc Mountains, the Ethiopian Highlands, Mount Kilimanjaro, Mount Kenya, Mount Elgon and Mount Meru. Of the 10,856 species found in this hotspot, over a third are endemic (BirdLife International, 2012). The Albertine Rift alone – which stretches across Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda and DRC – has over

Pink flamingos in Lake Nakuru National Park, Kenya

SUDAN Projected change in the distribution of malaria’s vectors Anopheles arabiensis Anopheles gambiae ERITREA SUDAN ERITREA

DJIBOUTI

SOUTH SUDAN

Change in suitability* More

ETHIOPIA

SOMALIA

DRC

UGANDA

KENYA

RWANDA BURUNDI

400 km

TANZANIA

Copyright©2015GRID-Arendal ·Cartografare ilpresente/ NievesLópez Izquierdo Source:H.E.Z.Tonnang,R.Y.M.Kangalawe,P.Z. Yanda,2010, “Predictingandmappingmalaria underclimatechangescenarios: thepotential redistributionofmalariavectors inAfrica”,Malaria Journal20109:111

Less *Under a climate change scenario with a rise of 2°C Africa wide temperature, 10% increase of summer rainfall and 10% decrease in winter rainfall.The overall climatic suitability of a nominated location for the two species of mosquitoes is provided by an Ecoclimatic Index (EI), which combines the annual potential for population growth, with the annual stresses that limit survival during the unfavourable season and with the limiting interacting factor between stresses.

ZAMBIA

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