Sustainable mountain development in East Africa in a changing climate
frequency of extreme events such as flooding and landslides. Rainfall variability is also a major problem for rain-fed agriculture, which is the most common form of farming in East Africa (FAO 2014). Some areas may also receive less rainfall, such as parts of the Ethiopian Highlands (William and Funk 2011). In areas with a large amount of arable land, such a change is likely to have a negative impact on the agricultural sector and exacerbate food insecurity in an already food insecure region (IGAD and ICPAC, 2007; Alweny et al., 2014). Biodiversity The mountain ecosystems of East Africa are rich in biodiversity and are an important resource for local communities. They provide food, freshwater, fibre, fuel, shelter, building materials, medicines and other important ecosystem services. As such, biodiversity serves as an important safety net for the rural poor (Boko et al., 2007; Alweny et al., 2014). Understanding how climate change will impact on natural resources is a major concern (Platts et al., 2012). Changes to biodiversity are also likely to adversely affect the tourism industry (UNEP, 2014). Known for their high concentration of plants and animals of which many are endemic, the mountainous areas of East Africa are some of the main tourist attractions in the subregion (UNEP, 2014). Much of the Eastern Afromontane biodiversity hotspot, which stretches from the mountains of Saudi Arabia in the north to Zimbabwe in the south, is found in East Africa. It includes the Albertine Rift, the Eastern Arc Mountains, the Ethiopian Highlands, Mount Kilimanjaro, Mount Kenya, Mount Elgon and Mount Meru. Of the 10,856 species found in this hotspot, over a third are endemic (BirdLife International, 2012). The Albertine Rift alone – which stretches across Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda and DRC – has over
Pink flamingos in Lake Nakuru National Park, Kenya
SUDAN Projected change in the distribution of malaria’s vectors Anopheles arabiensis Anopheles gambiae ERITREA SUDAN ERITREA
DJIBOUTI
DJIBOUTI
SOUTH SUDAN
SOUTH SUDAN
Change in suitability* More
ETHIOPIA
ETHIOPIA
SOMALIA
SOMALIA
DRC
DRC
UGANDA
UGANDA
KENYA
KENYA
RWANDA BURUNDI
RWANDA BURUNDI
400 km
TANZANIA
TANZANIA
Copyright©2015GRID-Arendal ·Cartografare ilpresente/ NievesLópez Izquierdo Source:H.E.Z.Tonnang,R.Y.M.Kangalawe,P.Z. Yanda,2010, “Predictingandmappingmalaria underclimatechangescenarios: thepotential redistributionofmalariavectors inAfrica”,Malaria Journal20109:111
Less *Under a climate change scenario with a rise of 2°C Africa wide temperature, 10% increase of summer rainfall and 10% decrease in winter rainfall.The overall climatic suitability of a nominated location for the two species of mosquitoes is provided by an Ecoclimatic Index (EI), which combines the annual potential for population growth, with the annual stresses that limit survival during the unfavourable season and with the limiting interacting factor between stresses.
ZAMBIA
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