Sustainable mountain development in East Africa in a changing climate

While projections for future impacts of climate change on agriculture in large parts of Africa are dire, the mountainous areas of East Africa may benefit from warmer temperatures and an increase in precipitation (Niang et al., 2014). For example, farmers in mountain areas may be able to cultivate crops that have previously been unsuited to the area, such as maize, which has been limited by the low temperatures. A study by Thornton et al. (2010), argues that, while maize yields will decrease in lowland Kenya, the highland areas are likely to become more favourable for maize. The study also identified similar results for highland areas in Burundi, Rwanda and DRC. The same is also true for livestock. While livestock farming is common in some parts of East Africa, it has generally been less successful in mountain areas due to the colder temperatures. This may change as temperatures increase (Thornton et al., 2010; Niang et al., 2014). However, the projected increase in precipitation could also have adverse effects, such as increased exposure to diseases for livestock and crops. More rainfall may increase the risk of livestock exposure to respiratory diseases and foot rot (MoNR, 2012). There is also concern that crop pests that have been restricted by cold temperatures could extend into higher altitudes when temperatures increase. Examples include the coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei) that attacks arabica coffee and the burrowing nematode (Radopholus similis) that affects bananas, both important cash crops in the subregion (Niang et al., 2014; UNEP, 2014). The higher temperatures will also expose the East Africa mountain region to malaria. There is also concern that the increase in rainfall will not be distributed evenly across the year, but may intensify over short periods of time (IPCC, 2012; World Bank, 2013), and thus further increase the

Climate change impacts on agriculture

SUDAN

ERITREA

DJIBOUTI

ETHIOPIA

SOUTH SUDAN

SOMALIA

UGANDA

DRC

Projected impact of climate change on cereal productivity for 2080 compare to 2000*

KENYA

RWANDA

+5 %

BURUNDI

-5 -25

-50

TANZANIA

not suitable

*IPCC SRES A2 scenario.

200 km

ZAMBIA

Source:G.Fischeretal,2005, “Socio-economicandclimatechange impactsonagriculture: an integratedassessment,1990-2080”,PhilosophicalTransactionsof theRoyal SocietyB:Biological Sciences360 (1463):2067-83. Copyright©2015GRID-Arendal ·Cartografare ilpresente/NievesLópez Izquierdo

MOZAMBIQUE

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