Illegal Logging and Related Timber Trade - Dimensions, Drivers, Impacts and Responses: A Global Scientific Rapid Response Assessment Report

6 MULTIPLE AND INTERTWINED IMPACTS OF ILLEGAL FOREST ACTIVITIES

6.2

Table

Climate change Uncer tain Uncer tain High ( − ) Source: Authors’ elaboration. Low and High propensity of impact. Impact can be ( + ) positive, ( − ) negative and ( − / + ) contradictory.

Local mechanisms of forest control Low ( − ) High ( + ) Low ( − / + ) Reduction in forest value High ( − ) High ( − ) High ( − ) Risks for secure investments High ( − ) High ( − ) Low ( + ) Benefits retained locally Low ( − / + ) High ( + ) Low ( − / + )

Unequal appropriation of forest rents High ( − ) Low ( − ) Low to high ( − ) Prevalence of corrupt behaviours High ( − ) Low to high ( − ) Low to high ( − ) Links with other illicit activities Low to high ( − ) Low to high ( − ) Low ( − ) Biodiversity loss High ( − ) Low to high ( − ) High ( − )

Securing tenure rights Low ( − ) High ( + ) High ( + )

Forest clearing to agriculture High ( − / + ) Low ( − / + ) High ( − ) Loss of key timber species High ( − ) Low to high ( − ) High ( − ) Pressure on local lands High ( − ) Low ( − / + ) High ( − )

Land conflict and violence High ( − ) Low ( − ) High ( − )

Misappropriation of resources High ( − ) Low to high ( − ) High ( − )

Fuel patronage systems High ( − ) Low to high ( − ) Low to high ( − ) Loss of command and control authority High ( − ) High ( − ) High ( − ) Reduction in species richness High ( − ) Low to high ( − ) High ( − ) Habitat destruction High ( − ) Low to high ( − ) High ( − ) Livelihood loss High ( − ) Low ( − ) Low to high ( − ) Loss of state revenue High ( − ) Low to high ( − / + ) Low to high ( − / + ) Diminished resilience capacity Low to high ( − ) Low to high ( − ) Low to high ( − )

Remuneration to local labour Low ( − ) High ( + ) Low to high ( + ) Local capture of benefits Low ( − ) High ( + ) Low to high ( − / + ) Local elite capture High ( − ) Low ( − ) Low to high ( − / + )

Enhance social control Low ( − ) High ( + ) Low to high ( − / + )

Illegal forest conversion to agriculture

Informal small-scale and artisanal production

Impacts Large-scale industrial logging operations Nature Dimensions Types Social

Social

Social

Political

Political

Political

Economic

Economic

Economic

Environmental

Environmental

Environmental

DIRECT

INDIRECT

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CUMULATIVE

A synthesis of some key effects across three different type of situations of illegal forest activities