Green Economy in a Blue World-Full Report

Ocean acidification and coral bleaching

population and economic growth, changes in lifestyles, technologies and international trade, and the expansion of water supply systems. Between 2010 and 2030 water withdrawals are projected to increase by 50 per cent by in developing countries, and 18 per cent in developed countries (UN-Water, 2011). Water stress will be more prevalent among poorer countries where water resources are limited and population growth is rapid; of the 48 countries expected to experience chronic water shortages by 2025, 40 are either in the Middle East and North Africa or in sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change is anticipated to exacerbate water stress challenges in the decades ahead, in some places severely. Tourism is both dependent on fresh water resources and an important factor in fresh water use (Gössling, et al., 2011). Great differences exist in terms of renewable water resources, desalination capacity, use of treated wastewater, and overall water use among the most important tourism countries. Consequently, community- and national-scale discussions of water security should not overlook tourism as a sector, particularly as water demand from tourism is expected to increase because of: (1) increased tourist numbers, (2) higher hotel standards and (3) the increased water-intensity of tourism activities (Gössling, et al. 2011). In the future, tourism businesses in water scarce regions will face considerably greater problems with regard to water availability and quality due to increasing competition among water users, and potentially, because of climate change. Biodiversity Climate change impacts on biodiversity include increasing average temperatures, changing precipitation regimes, extreme weather events, sea level rise, and changes in atmospheric, marine and terrestrial concentrations of CO 2 . Climate change also interacts with other pressures such as land-use change, changes in fire regimes, ecosystemfragmentation, pollution and the introduction of invasive species. Many of the proposed strategies to adapt to climate change impacts in coastal regions use hard- infrastructure approaches (sea walls, dykes). Such structures often adversely impact natural ecosystems processes (SCBD, 2009). Climate change will be a pivotal issue affecting tourism development and management in the decades ahead, and addressing the large information gaps regarding the climate change vulnerability of the tourism sector and better informing public decision makers as well as private sector of the attendant risks, must be a core component of any future strategy for tourism

in a Blue World

Marine environments are subject to large-scale degradation fromclimate change. Coral reefs are one of the most important marine ecosystems for tourism and also considered one of the most vulnerable to climate change. Impacts including ocean acidification, coral bleaching, and for those coral reefs located close to shore, greater land run-off and potential pollution as a result of increased storm events (Hughes, et al., 2010). With very high confidence, the IPCC (2007) concluded that a warming of 2°C above 1990 levels would result in mass mortality of coral reefs globally. Sea Level Rise and inundation The exact magnitude of global sea level rise (SLR) and regional variability remains uncertain, but SLR is considered one of the most certain consequences of human-induced climate change (IPCC, 2007). The impacts of SLR on coastal areas include erosion, inundation, impeded drainage and increased risk of riverine flooding, salinity intrusion into freshwater supplies, coastal habitat loss through ‘coastal squeeze’, and higher water tables which can adversely affect the stability of foundations of coastal infrastructure. SLR is a unidirectional hazard that once set in motion will continue for centuries, if not millennia, even under moderate scenarios of global warming. Few regional studies of the impacts of SLR have examined potential damages in the tourism sector. The broadest multi-national study of the SLR impacts on tourism to-date examined potential inundation and erosion impacts for major coastal tourism resorts and resort front beach areas in 19 nations of the Caribbean. Using a database of over 906 major tourism resort properties, (Scott, et al., 2012) estimated that 266 would be vulnerable to partial or full inundation by a one metre sea-level rise. A far higher number of major coastal resort properties (440 to 546) would be vulnerable to coastal erosion associated with a one metre sea- level rise. A much greater proportion of resort front beaches would be lost to inundation and accelerated erosion, as beaches would essentially have disappeared prior to damages to tourism resort infrastructure. Water Security Challenges Global water use has been estimated to have grown at more than twice the rate of population increase over the last century (UN-Water, 2011) and is presently doubling every 21 years (US-AID, 2009) (UN-Water, 2011). Water stress already affects a large and growing share of humanity. Global water use is increasing due to

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