Global Linkages

Biodiversity conservation

The northward spread of infectious disease

A R C T I C C I R C L E

North Pole

Geographic distribution of climatic suitability for tick Ixodes ricinus responsible for Lyme disease in Eurasia

Projection for 2080 according to the B2 scenario of the IPCC 4th assessment report

Main anthrax outbreaks as documented by the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) and Pro-MED between 2005 and 2016.

Situation in 2013

2 000 Number of cases Lyme disease cases in Canada

Low suitability Medium suitability Very low suitability High suitability

Low suitability Medium suitability High suitability

Anthrax climatic suitability

1 500

Current situation Forecast for 2050 based on projected warming anomalies using a concentration pathway of 4.5 W per m 2 radiative forcing.

1 000

The IPCC B2 scenario describes a world with an emphasis on local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability rather than the global approach (scenario B1). Presence of the tick Ixodes Scapularis Lyme disease vector for the period 2040-2080 according to the RCP 8.5 scenario of the IPCC

500

2009

2017

43

Global Linkages