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Climate change

Global warming from anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and other GHGs continues. While the effects of a warming climate on terrestrial and marine ecosystems, health and livelihoods are extensive, they are less obvious for now, especially to those not directly and immediately affected. Yet, every year, there are more noticeable signs of a changing climate, such as the increased number of intense hurricanes or the heat waves andwildfires in the northern hemisphere in 2018 (Samenow, 2018; Schiermeier, 2018). Such extreme weather is probably the main immediate consequence of climate change on societies worldwide. Nevertheless, the effects of change in the Arctic have long been felt by people living in the region.

Representative Concentration Pathways

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) uses four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), each associated with the expected path or direction in the change in greenhouse gas concentrations based on a number of socioeconomic and other variables. RCP2.6 is the strictest mitigation scenario, followed by two intermediate scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, and one very high GHG emission scenario, RCP8.5 (IPCC, 2014).

Arctic climate change

B

ALASKA

Projected changes in near-surface temperature (ºC) along the 30° longitude east for the 2080s relative to 1986-2005 under the IPCC RCP4.5 scenario

BEAUFORT SEA

ARCTIC OCEAN

... during the cold season (December–February) ... during the warm season (July–August)

Sea ice extent

NORWEGIAN SEA SVALBARD

In September 1981

Projection for autumn 2080–2100

SCANDINAVIA

BALTIC COUNTRIES

1 0.5

ºC 11 9 7 5 4 3 2 1.5

A

A

B

ºC

11 10 12

SVALBARD

BEAUFORT SEA

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

ARCTIC OCEAN

NORWEGIAN SEA

GULF OF FINLAND

Longyearbyen

ALASKA

Wainwright

SCANDINAVIA

BALTIC COUNTRIES

Tromsø

Fairbanks

Luleå

Helsinki

Riga

Kodiak Island

12

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