Global Environment Outlook 3 (GEO 3)

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INTEGRATING ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT: 1972–2002

from around the world, predicted that average temperatures would rise between 1.4 and 5.8°C over the 21st century. IPCC states that: ‘There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities … Furthermore, it is very likely that the 20th century warming has contributed significantly to the observed sea level rise, through thermal expansion of sea water and widespread loss of land ice’ (IPCC 2001). The implications of this faster rise in global temperatures cut across broad areas of economic, social and environmental concern and add urgency to the need for controls on factors contributing to global warming. The first and most important of these is energy consumption. Only in Europe is the per capita consumption of fossil fuels falling, and there only slowly. El Niño Increasing attention is also being paid to El Niño as a result of a particularly severe episode during 1997–98 which caused millions of dollars worth of damage. It also gave rise to a major study by several institutions of the lessons learned from that episode and of what could be done to mitigate the effects of future El Niños (see box right). Scientific developments In the early years of the 3rd millennium, scientific advances continue to provide ethical and environmental challenges. A scientific breakthrough whose impact on humankind and ultimately the environment is still uncertain is the mapping of the human genome. The benefits of such mapping include learning the underlying causes of thousands of genetic diseases and predicting the likelihood of their occurrence in any individual. Genetic information might also be used to predict sensitivities to various industrial and environmental agents. While concerns about misuse and loss of personal privacy exist, many of the ramifications of mapping the human genome will be recognized only as science and technology merge in the future applications of this new tool (Human Genome Project 1996). Also controversial is the increasing use of genetically modified organisms (GMOs). As described in GEO-2000 (UNEP 1999), the rapid evolutionary character of microbes and viruses,

Sea levels during the 1997–98 El Niño

Satellite image records sea levels in the Pacific on 10 November 1997. El Niños are characterized by higher sea levels (red and white areas) on the South American side of the southern Pacific, lower levels (blue areas) on the other side

Source: Topex/Poseidon NASA

Once burned, twice shy: the 1997–98 El Niño

Thousands of human casualties and tens of billions of dollars in economic damage will continue to befall the world’s developing countries every two to seven years until an investment is made to improve forecasting and preparedness against El Niño, according to a new international study. The study was developed by teams of researchers working in 16 countries in Latin America, Asia and Africa. Four United Nations organizations collaborated in the preparation of the study – UNEP, the UN University, WMO and the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction – together with the US-based National Center for Atmospheric Research. More reliable El Niño forecasts and the ability of governments to react quickly to them are critical. In the absence of such capabilities, vulnerable people, infrastructure and economies in many parts of the world will continue to suffer periodically from El Niño events through floods, fires, drought, cyclones and outbreaks of infectious disease. Few forecasters came close to forecasting El Niño’s onset in mid-1997 and none was able to grasp the magnitude of the ‘El Niño of the Century’ until it was well under way. National and regional forecasters typically provided predictions of El Niño impacts that in many cases were too general to be used with confidence by national and local decision-makers. Losses from the El Niño in 1997-98 included thousands of deaths and injuries from severe storms, heat waves, fires, floods, frosts and drought. Estimates of El Niño-related damage ranged from US$32 to

US$96 billion. Source: UNU 2001