Global Environment Outlook 3 (GEO 3)

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OUTLOOK 2002–32

UNEP, Pramkaew, Still Pictures

Lessons from the future

Earlier chapters of GEO-3 have outlined important and very specific changes that emerged over the past 30 years, and there is no reason to believe that the next 30 will be any less dynamic. Using scenarios, it is possible to tell strongly contrasting but plausible stories about how the world and its regions might develop in the future. None of the stories requires exotic surprises to materialize and elements of each of the four scenarios can already be discerned in today’s world. In appreciating the scenarios, it is important to realize that, in real life, they are not mutually exclusive. A given region may experience all four or a combination of several at once. And although

As we step back into the world in which we live now, a number of important lessons arise from the foregoing scenarios that can help to provide general policy guidance.

LESSON ONE Contrasting yet plausible stories can be told for how the world and its regions will develop in the next 30 years; each has fundamentally different implications for the environment.