Global Environment Outlook 3 (GEO 3)

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OUTLOOK 2002–32

environmental governance are absent, as in Security First , or afforded a lower status than other institutions, as in Markets First , improvements in environmental conditions are less likely to occur. As the range of concerns traverses the local to the global, so must these institutions. Furthermore, as all sectors of society are, in some way, both responsible for and impacted by the status of natural and human systems, these institutions must reach across these sectors. Thus, not only formal governments, but also business, NGOs and other elements of civil society must play a role, individually and in partnership, in establishing and maintaining these institutions. allows for early warning of environmental problems can stimulate voluntary action by business and industry can support formal and informal market- based mechanisms that promote good environmental conduct. Ensuring and stimulating timely access to information is crucial not only for keeping abreast of the current state of environmental and social systems and trends in both, but also for coordinating action to address emerging or existing problems. Efforts are required to ensure that key public information remains accessible, and that more flows are established. A fundamental message, from Policy First and Sustainability First in particular, is that information can both encourage voluntary action and increase the effectiveness of other policies. The flow of accurate information can therefore actively support other policies. Conversely, as Security First most notably shows, when economic and political relations polarize, the control of information can be an important instrument of power. LESSON SIX Ensuring timely access to accurate information is a robust policy, as it:

LESSON SEVEN Not all policy instruments are appropriate for all situations. It is clear that there are particular policy instruments that are more in accordance with different types of worlds. For example, market-based instruments such as capping and trading systems for curbing pollutants will find a niche in a world that resembles Markets First , whereas ambitious zoning and other spatial planning measures would not go down so well. Similarly, eco- labelling will be suited to a world that resembles Sustainability First , but forcibly restricting access to protected areas would be much less suitable. This same argument implies that the most appropriate choice of policy instruments can vary between different regions or at different times. Careful selection of specific and appropriate policy instruments is clearly very important. The final lesson from the scenarios presented in this chapter may be one of perspective. LESSON EIGHT The achievement of environmental goals will require decisive action, will encounter unforeseen eventualities and will not happen overnight. Fortunately or unfortunately, much of the success or failure of this endeavour is in our hands. The four scenarios show that the future is not something that we should wait for passively. Rather, the choices we have made in the past, those we are currently making and those we will make in the future all strongly influence in which world we will live. There will be many branch points when stakeholders will have the opportunity to turn in one direction or another, whether towards Markets First or towards Policy First , Security First , Sustainability First or another, as yet unimagined, scenario. Being aware of threats, opportunities and the possible outcomes of different choices is a prerequisite to effective policy making.