Global Environment Outlook 3 (GEO 3)

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OUTLOOK 2002–32

In the Arctic, the condition of the boreal forests differs markedly between scenarios. Large areas of forest in the region have come under stress from rapid climate change, leading to long-term shifts in temperature and precipitation, as well as to increasing

incidence of fires. Continued and increasing levels of logging in Markets First and Security First further exacerbate these pressures. Most notably, in Security First muddy plains and clear-cut forested areas have replaced many of the once vast pristine landscapes.

Imagine… a crash in circumpolar Antarctic krill stocks

Clear signs emerge that circumpolar Antarctic krill ( Euphausia superba ) stocks are crashing. The immediate cause is believed to be commercial over-harvesting, but the picture is complicated by simultaneous sea-ice changes and rises in ultraviolet radiation levels, both of which are believed to affect krill population dynamics. There is evidence of serious adverse impacts on breeding success of Antarctic birds, seals and cetaceans within a few seasons, leading to serious concerns over the viability of populations of higher predators. Indications of severe damage to stocks of other marine species — initially evident through declining stocks of fin-fish and squid — raise concern about the stability of the entire Antarctic marine ecosystem, and knock-on effects on other ecosystems in and around the sub- region. Dramatic falls in catches of krill and commercial fisheries stocks that prey on krill, result in widespread reduction in fishing activity and collapse of the fishing industry in some areas. The treaties, institutions and other international arrangements set up to conserve and manage the fishery are seen as having failed. Public concern runs high at the prospect of threats to charismatic wildlife species such as penguins, seals and whales. In the case of… Markets First Some regulatory steps are taken, but market mechanisms are the prime response measures used — reducing krill demand by raising prices, and harvesting by raising costs. Harvesting switches to other species, including those that are not dependent upon krill themselves and may be competitors. Where these responses fail, the fishing industry abandons the area. It is widely presumed that krill stocks will in time recover, and that the adverse knock-on effects will turn out to be reversible. Measures are taken to ban some operators from the region as a way to curb pressures on krill stocks. Market mechanisms are employed when they underpin the interests of key stakeholders in the region. In a bid for short-term ‘use-it-or-lose-it’ exploitation, harvesting switches to other species, including those expected to decline steeply as a result of krill stock collapse. Active management of the marine environment begins by seeding new krill stocks (including genetically modified types), enhancing nutrient levels and depressing predators or competitors. There is an immediate closure of all krill fisheries pending recovery of stocks. Substantial reductions in other fisheries are introduced as a precautionary measure — although directed harvesting of particular predator populations is considered in some areas. A renewed effort is made to understand the functioning of the Antarctic marine environment. Negotiation begins for a new legal regime to manage the marine environment and regulate more limited harvesting when stocks have recovered. The lessons Existing knowledge of many natural systems is limited, including the thresholds for resource exploitation, beyond which systems collapse. Such thresholds may be reached in a comparatively sudden way. It makes sense, therefore, to continue efforts to improve understanding, but also to take a precautionary approach where baseline data are lacking, where uncertainty is high and where irreversible impacts are possible. This course of action may avoid the need to take more drastic action in the event of a system crash. Sustainability First Policy First Moratoria on krill harvesting are agreed to allow stock recovery. These steps are accompanied by reductions in fisheries activities across all target species. Major research effort is directed to understanding what has happened and underpinning policy responses. The regulatory regime for the marine environment is revised. Security First