Global Environment Outlook 3 (GEO 3)

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OUTLOOK 2002–32

UNEP, V Bugaldon, Still Pictures

A tale of four futures

The turn of the 21st century was an opportunity to reflect on the past and speculate about the future. This milestone not only heralded the beginning of a new millennium but also marked more than 50 years of several key global institutions, not least the United Nations and World Bank. Events at regional level also provide much food for thought. The countries of the European Union (EU) face the possibility of membership nearly doubling in one or two decades, spurred on by the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the eastern bloc. In Africa, the relatively peaceful end of apartheid in South Africa and the transition from military to civilian rule in Nigeria have changed the political climate. These turnabouts

Asia and the Pacific, notably in Indonesia and the Philippines, and the repercussions of the economic crisis in the late 1990s are stimulating fresh dialogue about the future of the region. In Latin America and the Caribbean, a period of relative stability has prompted increased willingness to address important issues inherited from the past. As they find themselves in the centre of some of the most publicized geopolitical events, the people of West Asia eye their future warily. Meanwhile, the recent economic slowdown and terrorist attacks have led many North Americans to reassess their actions at home and abroad to a degree not seen in decades. At this time, the world is marked by tumultuous change. A global system seems to be taking shape as economic interdependence increases. Information technology accelerates the spread of ideas and the human transformation of nature becomes evident on a planetary scale. As economies grow, the rich get richer and many of the poor manage to escape from poverty. But huge disparities persist as vast wealth coexists with abject poverty and each extreme generates its own characteristic environmental pressures.

‘When sizing up prospects for the future, some find grounds for optimism but others are more apprehensive.’

in the continent’s two most populous countries open the door for new debate on how to solve Africa’s persistent problems, including civil wars, poverty, inequality and the AIDS pandemic. Political changes in